Srinagar, March 26: Is Jammu & Kashmir on the brink of a major climate crisis? What should be done at the public policy and community levels in J&K to brace for a climate shock, adapt and mitigate the adverse impacts from climate change?
These are some of the key questions that have been addressed in a major and first-ever study conducted on climate change in Kashmir in 2007. The study, designed and authored by Arjimand Hussain, founder of Ziraat Times, had come up with some startling findings, and has also made recommendations on what could be done at public policy and community levels to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.
With a record warm spring across Jammu & Kashmir this March, this 2-part series by Ziraat Times would revisit the study findings and assess to what extent have research and public policy measures addressed the challenges of climate change in J&K. In simple terms, it would ask: are we really ready for the unfolding climate shock?
How was the study conducted?
This 29-page report published by Bangaluru-based Books for Change, and supported by ActionAid International, one of the leading global development agencies, was based on research data and information collected from eight districts between October 2006 and July 2007 through field interviews and analysis of primary and secondary information and data. Ground level information and data were collected by 91 field surveyors, who were also supported by interns from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai; Delhi School of Social Work; Aligarh Muslim University and McGill University, Canada and Kashmir University across 61 villages of the districts of Anantnag, Kulgam, Pulwama, Shopian, Ganderbal, Srinagar, Budgam, Kupwara, Bandipora and Baramulla.
What did the study focus on
The issues that have been looked into in this study are the change patterns in water availability, crop cultivation, glacier size, snowfall, rainfall, floods and the impact of all these on the livelihoods of people living in Kashmir. The kind of possible future scenarios quoted in the report by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the changes occurring in the Himalayan mountain regions, also serve to reinforce the findings in this study.
Key findings of the study
Despite a dearth of reliable comparative data and temperature recordings across various areas and sub-regions of Kashmir, recent figures from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest that in Kashmir there is an overall increase in average temperatures. On average, Kashmir valley has shown a rise of 1.450 Celsius, while Jammu region has shown a rise of 2.320 Celsius over the last almost two decades.
According to the recently released report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures are likely to rise by 1.10 Celsius to 6.40 Celsius by 2100. Such a scenario means that the plains of Kashmir would no longer receive snow and whatever snow the upper reaches may receive would hardly last to feed the rivers of the region throughout the year, threatening livelihoods at a large scale.
IMD monitoring reveals that temperatures are increasing in both the regions of Jammu & Kashmir with significant increase in maximum temperature by 0.050 Celsius per year in Kashmir Valley and minimum temperature in Jammu region by 0.080 Celsius per year.
Actual time period for snowfall has also undergone a change with December and January receiving scant or no snow while February and March witness heavy snowfall. Quantity of snowfall in Kashmir has clearly reduced over the last few decades. Although occasionally it does have spells of heavy snowfall, the inability of snow to freeze and develop into hard and longer-lasting crystals owing to higher temperatures has resulted in faster meltdown.
Impact on agriculture
Deficit in food production in Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent, while the deficit is 30 per cent in vegetable production and 69 per cent in oilseed production for a population of 6 million, putting food security at a greater risk. In 1980– 81, Kashmir valley had a food deficit of only 23 per cent for a total population of 3.3 million.
As more and more paddy land is changed into rain-fed orchards, Kashmir’s current 40 per cent food grain deficit is likely to touch over 60 per cent in the coming 10 years if the current rate of change is taken into account.
Sample surveys reveal that 11909 Kanals of paddy land have been converted into rain-fed dryland in the districts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Bandipora, Badgam, Pulwama, Kulgam and Shopian in recent years (between 2005-2007)
Large-scale transition from paddy cultivation to rain-fed crops poses risk to food security in Kashmir. In the post-WTO scenario, as foreign fruits – mainly apples – have started flooding Indian markets, demand for Kashmiri fruits is likely to reduce. Low demand could cripple the capacity of poor small farmers to buy food grains from the market.
Erratic weather patterns
There is a clear unpredictability of the Western Disturbances passing over Kashmir, possibly due to factors which could be global in nature, with unusual distribution of rainfall in space and time, shifting patterns of precipitation and sustained deficit of snowfall.
There is a possibility that heat-trapping gases which have reduced snowfall in Khrew-Pampore and some areas of Anantnag could spill over to other areas of Kashmir, resulting in less or no snow in the plains in the coming two decades.
It has also been observed that the amount of rainfall during the winter months of December, January and February has also increased in comparison to the past.
The study reveals that the water level in almost all the streams and rivers in Kashmir has decreased by approximately two-thirds during the last 40 years.
Hundreds of springs spread all across Kashmir have either dried up or are in the process of drying up. Although groundwater level in most of the plains does not seem to have been adversely affected, groundwater level on average in Karewas and upper areas has decreased by one-third.
While winter and spring water run off has clearly increased due to early meltdown of glaciers, resulting in frequent floods, faster meltdown has resulted in significant decrease in water availability in streams during summers.
The 2007 spring floods have largely been a consequence of fast meltdown of snow in the mountains, coupled with the spring rains. In future, any major snowfall in spring, like the one which occurred in March 2007, followed by rainfall stretched over 48hrs could wreak havoc in Kashmir Valley.
In Karnah, which falls between the temperate Kashmir Valley and semi temperate Pakistan- Administered Kashmir, there is a greater frequency of flash floods now. Temperatures are also constantly rising.
State of shrinking glaciers
It has been found that there has been an overall 21 per cent reduction in the glacier surface area in the Chenab basin. The mean area of glacial extent has also declined from 1 sq km to 0.32 sq km during 1962–2004.
Many of the areas have seen a complete disappearance of small glaciers such as some parts of eastern Srinagar and Pirpanjal mountain range in Pulwama District. In other areas, like Budgam, the height of the small glaciers has reduced to over one-fourth of the original height.
In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley in Ganderbal district, the Najwan Akal which was said to be a major glacier, has completely disappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojila and Naranag glaciers used to be large enough to last up to October through November some decades back, but today they have considerably reduced.
While winter and spring water run off has clearly increased due to early meltdown of glaciers, resulting in frequent floods, faster meltdown has resulted in significant decrease in water availability in streams during summers.
The Fakir Gujri area of Srinagar district used to witness snowfall between December and March. But over the years there is snowfall only in the month of January even as there is snowfall in the Mahadev hills. Locals attribute this to increased temperatures in the area. The area receives about 2ft of snow today as compared to about 10ft about 40 years ago.
In the Kapran area in Anantnag (Islamabad), the length of the Hangipora glacier has reduced from 35ft to 12ft and the Naaginad glacier has reduced from 30ft to 10ft. In Chaklipora area the Galgudi and Wandernad glaciers have considerably decreased in size since approximately the last two decades.
In the Kalaroos village the snow levels have reduced from 10ft to 3ft. In Manzgam village snowfall has reduced from 6ft to a maximum of 2–3ft. Similarly, people in Waderarea of Kupwara report decreaseof snowfall from 12ft to 5ft today.
In Choolan area, located in the Shamasbarimountain range in Baramulla district, the nearby glacier, namely Katha, has reduced from about 200ft forty years ago to about 80ft today.
In Karnah sub-region the glaciers of Shamasbari and Sadhna have decreased in size by more than half during the last 30 years.
The Budrukotglacier has reduced from 16ft to only 5ft in height over the years. The Khujwan glacier in the mountains of the Kichama area has reduced from 40ft to only 20ft over the years.
The Afarwat glacier around NambalnarHajibal area, which used to be 300m long 40 years ago has completely disappeared today.
In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley in Ganderbal district, the Najwan Akal which was said to be a major glacier, has completely disappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojila and Naranag glaciers used to be large enough to last up to October through November some decades back, but today they have considerably reduced.
End to Part I. To be followed by Part II
