Climate uncertainty and the need for crop insurance in J&K

By Dr. Rizwan Rumi

The Valley that once greeted every season as a sacred blessing now increasingly watches the sky with fear.

For generations, Kashmir’s agricultural life moved in harmony with nature. Spring carried the fragrance of almond blossoms, summer nourished emerald paddy fields, autumn crowned orchards with crimson apples, and winter wrapped the Valley in quiet resilience. Seasons were once predictable companions of rural life. Today, however, that ancient ecological rhythm stands deeply disturbed.

For the farmers and orchardists of Jammu & Kashmir, 2026 has unfolded not as a season of prosperity, but as a season of devastation, anxiety, and silent economic collapse.

A chain of extreme weather events beginning with the unseasonal disturbances of April 18, intensifying during the violent storms of May 12, and culminating in the catastrophic hailstorms of May 22, has unleashed unprecedented damage across the Valley’s agricultural landscape. Standing crops have been flattened, tender fruit blossoms shredded before maturity, vegetable fields drowned beneath relentless rainfall, and orchards scarred by gusty winds that erased years of labour and investment.

From the high-density apple orchards of Shopian and Kulgam to the horticultural belts of Sopore, Baramulla, Kupwara, Rafiabad and Tangmarg, the same scenes of destruction continue to emerge. Orchard floors now lie buried beneath broken branches, scattered blossoms and bruised fruit. In villages such as Watergam, Lessar, Dandiwacha, Hadipora and Tral, growers describe the devastation not merely as crop loss, but as the wiping away of an entire year’s hope within minutes.

In several severely affected zones, local estimates suggest that nearly 60 to 70 percent of fruit production has either been destroyed or suffered irreversible quality deterioration. What survived the hailstorms now faces secondary threats of fungal infection, bruising, moisture damage and declining market value.

This is no longer an isolated agricultural setback. It is a structural climate emergency unfolding in real time across the fragile Himalayan ecosystem of Jammu & Kashmir.

Agriculture and horticulture in Jammu & Kashmir are not merely economic sectors; they are the emotional and financial backbone of society itself. Official assessments indicate that the horticulture sector alone supports more than seven lakh families and provides direct and indirect employment to nearly twenty-three lakh people. The sector generates an annual turnover exceeding ₹6,300 crore and remains one of the most critical pillars of the Union Territory’s economy.

Yet beneath these impressive macroeconomic figures lies a fragile human reality.

More than ninety percent of orchard owners in Kashmir are small and marginal growers whose livelihoods depend entirely upon one successful harvest cycle. A single weather disaster can push entire families into debt traps from which recovery becomes nearly impossible.

For such households, crop failure does not remain confined to agriculture. It affects school fees, healthcare expenses, marriage arrangements, household consumption and long-term social stability. When orchards fail, rural dignity itself begins to fracture.

The crisis becomes even more dangerous because farming in Kashmir has become increasingly expensive. High-density apple cultivation requires enormous investments in pesticides, fertilizers, anti-fungal treatments, labour, transportation, packaging and irrigation. Many growers operate through borrowed capital and seasonal loans. When climatic disasters destroy produce before harvest, repayment becomes impossible.

This explains why repeated demands for loan waivers and special relief packages have emerged from fruit grower associations across the Valley after the recent hailstorms.

But relief alone is no longer enough.

The events unfolding in Kashmir today cannot be dismissed as random seasonal disturbances. They are deeply connected to the accelerating realities of climate change.

Scientists and environmental observers have repeatedly warned that Himalayan ecosystems are among the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. Rising temperatures, irregular snowfall, changing rainfall patterns, sudden cloudbursts, prolonged dry spells and unseasonal storms are rapidly altering the agricultural calendar of Jammu & Kashmir.

Winters are becoming shorter and warmer. Snowfall patterns have become inconsistent. Spring now arrives unpredictably. Hailstorms increasingly strike during crucial flowering and fruit-setting stages, precisely when orchards are most vulnerable.

Traditional farming wisdom, once passed from generation to generation, is losing reliability before rapidly changing climatic behaviour.

Paddy cultivation too has entered a phase of uncertainty. In several parts of Kashmir, farmers are gradually abandoning traditional rice cultivation due to water scarcity, erratic rainfall and declining profitability. Vegetable growers complain that sudden temperature fluctuations are increasing pest attacks and reducing productivity.

The ecological stability upon which Kashmir’s agrarian society historically depended is steadily weakening. Yet despite the growing frequency of climatic shocks, farmers continue to stand largely unprotected.

Every year after major storms, a familiar administrative cycle repeats itself. Political leaders visit affected areas, survey teams are constituted, damage assessments are ordered, and relief announcements dominate headlines for several days. Yet on the ground, growers repeatedly complain that compensation arrives late, remains inadequate, and fails to reflect the true scale of losses.

The recent hailstorms have once again exposed the limitations of reactive governance.

For many orchardists, the actual losses are not merely physical but economic. Apples damaged by hail may survive on trees, but bruised or scarred fruit loses its market value entirely. Current compensation systems often fail to account for such quality degradation.

This disconnect between official assessment and lived reality has deepened frustration among farming communities. Many growers argue that existing relief mechanisms continue to function as temporary political responses rather than long-term agricultural protection frameworks.

That is precisely why the debate around crop insurance has now become urgent and unavoidable.

India’s flagship agricultural insurance initiative, the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), was introduced to protect farmers against crop losses arising from natural calamities, pests and weather-related disasters. Official records indicate that more than 11.6 lakh farmer applications from Jammu & Kashmir have been enrolled under the scheme over the years, with claims amounting to more than ₹166 crore reportedly settled.

On paper, these numbers appear significant. On the ground, however, a critical mismatch persists between policy design and Kashmir’s horticultural realities.

The scheme was largely conceptualized around conventional agricultural patterns of the plains, where crop-loss calculations often depend upon measurable yield reductions in cereals such as wheat or paddy. Kashmir’s horticulture economy functions very differently.

Apple cultivation, walnut orchards, cherry production and saffron farming operate under highly climate-sensitive and quality-dependent conditions. A single hailstorm may not uproot a tree, but it can destroy the commercial value of the produce entirely.

A damaged apple may technically survive, yet become unsellable in premium markets. Similarly, saffron exposed to untimely rainfall can lose both quality and value despite partial physical survival. Current insurance structures inadequately account for such realities of temperate horticulture.

The structural gaps are evident. Generic insurance models fail to capture the region-specific vulnerabilities associated with apple orchards, walnut cultivation and saffron farming. Delayed assessments and claim settlements weaken farmer trust. Existing compensation systems focus primarily on quantity loss while overlooking quality deterioration caused by bruising, scarring, fungal infection and moisture damage. Many small growers remain unfamiliar with documentation and enrollment procedures, while tenant farmers and sharecroppers often remain excluded altogether. Even technological initiatives like remote sensing and digital crop assessment remain weakly localized in Kashmir.

The crisis therefore demands more than sympathy. It demands structural reform.

If Jammu & Kashmir wishes to safeguard its rural economy against future climate shocks, a modern and region-specific agricultural protection architecture must emerge.

Localized weather-index insurance systems can improve transparency and efficiency by triggering automatic payouts through weather stations measuring hail intensity, rainfall levels and wind velocity. Drone and satellite-based damage mapping can help establish accurate compensation frameworks. Kashmir’s apple economy requires a specialized insurance mechanism tailored specifically for quality-sensitive horticulture. Alongside insurance, the government must revive and strengthen the Market Intervention Scheme to provide price support for hail-damaged produce. Most importantly, no insurance system can succeed while excluding vulnerable cultivators who bear operational risks despite lacking formal land ownership documents.

A farmer’s loss is never merely economic.

When crops fail in Kashmir, the consequences travel far beyond agriculture. A damaged orchard often means a daughter’s education interrupted, a medical treatment postponed, a family pushed into debt, or a lifetime of savings erased. The emotional devastation borne by farming households rarely enters official statistics.

A farmer who stands helplessly watching hailstones strip his orchard does not merely lose fruit. He loses accumulated labour, inherited tradition, financial security, emotional stability and the fragile hope upon which rural life survives.

This human dimension must remain central to every policy discussion on climate resilience and agricultural protection.

Jammu & Kashmir now stands at a critical crossroads. The climate realities confronting the region are no longer temporary disruptions; they are becoming recurring patterns. Extreme weather events that once occurred once in decades now arrive multiple times within a single season.

The old approach of reactive relief packages can no longer sustain rural Kashmir.

What is required instead is a comprehensive strategy combining climate-resilient agriculture, scientific forecasting, localized insurance models, digital transparency, market stabilization and institutional accountability.

The Valley’s farmers do not seek charity. They seek security, dignity and recognition for sustaining one of the most vital economic sectors of the region.

The farmer who feeds society should not remain abandoned before the fury of changing skies.

If Kashmir’s orchards are to survive the storms ahead, crop insurance must evolve from symbolic paperwork into genuine ground-level protection.

And that protection cannot wait any longer.