Srinagar, May 28: Come mid 2024, Jammu & Kashmir’s business and the overall economic architecture are set to see a big change.
After decades of planning and development work of tunnels, bridges, culverts and other critical infrastructure, a train from Delhi is expected to run directly to Srinagar some time in 2024. While a lot has been written about the engineering dimensions of the ambitious project, the economic fallouts, which are expected to be huge, have been scarcely analysed.
The first transformation likely to happen is a large upward trend in the number of tourists to Kashmir. Cheaper train travel option is expected to bring in much larger number of tourists to Kashmir directly from their towns and cities across the country. If freight trains ply on this stretch, J&K’s economic landscape is likely to change in a big way too.
While the transportation of apples, other agricultural produce and industrial products from Kashmir would get easier, the huge array of consumer goods exported to Kashmir through road as of now could also see direct transportation.
Economic experts believe that there is likely to be greater push for high value cash crops, including exotic vegetables, from paddy cultivation in the coming years.
“Given the demand for Kashmir’s vegetables and other cash crops in rest of the country, there would be greater push to shift from low income paddy to higher income crops. Until now transportation was the main hurdle. With a direct train, vegetables and cash crops could be transported more easily if a cold chain is established with the train network”, said Syed Farooq, a vegetable trader from Pulwama.
Direct transportation of goods from factoring across the country to Kashmir is also likely to transform the existing supply chain.
“In such a scenario, goods in Kashmir’s markets could get cheaper, and a large number of companies who have established their Commissioning and Forwarding Agent offices in Jammu region may consider to shift to Srinagar”, said Imtiyaz Malik, a leading trader in groceries in Srinagar.
Concerned about the prospects of this railway project negatively impacting business and jobs in the Jammu region, a delegation of the office bearers of Jammu Chamber of Commerce & Industry (JCCI), led by president Arun Gupta, met Dr Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State for the PMO last week and briefed him about the potential economic impact of the railway connectivity to Srinagar on Jammu and the need to explore alternative economic ideas for the region.
“The introduction of a direct train service between Delhi and Srinagar could potentially result in diversion of business away from Jammu. As travelers can now conveniently reach Srinagar directly from Delhi, they may bypass Jammu altogether, resulting in decreased tourism and business activity in the region”, Amar Singh, a trader from Jammu told Ziraat Times.
The direct rail service is also expected to result in reduction in stopovers for travellers travelling to Kashmir.
“Previously, when travelers had to rely on indirect transportation options, they often made stopovers in Jammu during their journey. This generated economic activity in terms of accommodation, dining, and shopping. With a direct train, the number of stopovers in Jammu could decrease, impacting local businesses that catered to these travelers”, said Mailk Junaid, a transporter.
Several members of Jammu Chamber of Commerce, involved in trading for many decades feel that the direct railway connectivity would not also result in decreased trade opportunities for the region.
“As of now, Jammu serves as an important trade hub, connecting various regions of Jammu and Kashmir and acting as a gateway to the rest of India. If the direct train service bypasses Jammu, it might lead to reduced trade opportunities, affecting businesses involved in transportation, logistics, and trade-related services”, Satveer Singh, another trader opines.
People in the hospitality sector are also anticipating some dip in business for hotels in the city.
Says Nadeem Khan, a travel agent, “Jammu has a significant number of hotels and guesthouses that cater to tourists and travelers. If the number of visitors decreases due to the direct train service, it could have a negative impact on the hospitality sector, leading to decreased occupancy rates and potential job losses”.
However, officials who spoke to Ziraat Times, said that the government had a plan to offset any losses in trade and business for Jammu city, and that newer tourist destinations will be opened up in the coming years across the region.
“The fact of the matter is that the direct train service would also create a need for infrastructure development in Jammu to remain competitive and attract travelers. Government is working on creating more avenues of business and tourism for the Jammu region. We are aware that Jammu could face challenges in retaining its position as a transit point and may experience a decline in business and trade activities”, a senior official said.
Pertinently, out of the total 272 km of the planned railway line between Udhampur and Baramulla, 161 km of railway track within the Kashmir valley has already been commissioned – 118 km Baramulla-Qazigund section and the 18 km Qazigund-Banihal section, which includes Srinagar city.
As the Reasi rail bridge is nearing completion, the most difficult Reasi-Banihal section is likely to see connection in 2024. Railway officials told Ziraat Times that a special train has been designed for the Srinagar section factoring in snow and cold weather conditions.
“It would be a tourist delight”, he added.
However, environtalists also express concern that a large surge in tourist arrivals into Kashmir valley could go beyond the region’s carrying capacity, and imperil its natural beauty and fragile ecology.
On the other hand, Kashmir’s business and fruit industry actors are upbeat about the prospects of a direct rail link making their businesses more competitive and sustainable.
