New Delhi | The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon during 2024 and 2025 were found to be accurate, with actual rainfall closely matching projections, the government informed Parliament on Wednesday.
According to data released by the Press Information Bureau (PIB), the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall during both years was recorded at 108 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), categorised as “above normal”. IMD’s first-stage and updated forecasts for both seasons remained within the prescribed model error margins, validating the reliability of its prediction systems.
For the 2024 southwest monsoon season, IMD issued its first forecast in April, projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of LPA with a model error of ±5 per cent. An updated forecast released at the end of May also estimated rainfall at 106 per cent of LPA with a reduced error margin of ±4 per cent. The actual rainfall stood at 108 per cent of LPA. Region-wise, Central India and the South Peninsular region received above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India recorded normal rainfall and Northeast India saw below-normal precipitation. Observed rainfall across these regions largely remained within forecast ranges.
Similarly, for the 2025 monsoon season, IMD’s April forecast projected rainfall at 105 per cent of LPA, followed by an updated estimate of 106 per cent of LPA in early May. The actual rainfall again measured 108 per cent of LPA. While most regional forecasts aligned with observed rainfall, deviations were noted in parts of Northwest India. Overall, spatial probability forecasts for both years correctly indicated above-normal rainfall across most of the country, except the Northeast.
The government noted that monsoon performance is critical for agriculture, particularly in the monsoon core zone that supports rainfed farming. Rainfall over this zone was normal to above normal during both years. As a result, crop production in 2024 was above normal, and output in 2025 is also expected to remain above normal.
The statement added that IMD is continuously upgrading its seasonal forecasting capabilities through improvements in empirical and dynamical models, multi-model ensemble approaches, and the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Efforts are also underway to refine model physics, enhance data assimilation, and increase computational resolution.
Significant progress has also been reported in modernising IMD’s observation and monitoring infrastructure over the past decade. The number of Doppler Weather Radars has increased from 15 in 2013–14 to 47 in 2024–25, providing radar coverage to about 87 per cent of the country. Automatic weather stations have increased from 675 to over 1,000, while rain gauge stations have nearly doubled to 6,700. High-performance computing capacity has expanded from 1.1 petaflops to 28 petaflops during the same period.
The government said further expansion of radar and observation networks is planned in the coming years to achieve comprehensive national coverage and enhance the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts.
