Srinagar, June 5: Kashmir valley is losing its greenery at a rapid pace. The haphazard urban sprawl is causing it to lose its natural beauty and aesthetics with each passing day. As constructions pop up at an alarming pace across urban and rural areas, Kashmir valley has started to look like one unpleasant urban mass. Bad-looking constructions are consuming green farming lands and private tree spaces at a rapid pace.
While this rapid loss of greenery is bad for its environment, Kashmir is also fast losing its tourism USP – its natural beauty.
So the question we are confronted with today is this: what would Kashmir valley look like if the current pace of urban expansion goes on at the current pace? The answer would be very uncomfortable.
On the eve of the World Environment Day, Ziraat Times set out to estimate in quantitative terms what the current urban sprawl and population growth would mean to Kashmir’s natural environment in 50 years time. This is what we found:
As per the 2011 Census, Kashmir division’s population was 69,07,623. While, as of 2023, no updated population figure is available, assuming the decadal population growth rate of 29.98%, as per the Planning, Development and Monitoring Department, the estimated population of Kashmir would be 89,83,327, or ninety lakhs in 2023.
Keeping the decadal population growth rate unchanged at 29.98%, Kashmir valley’s population is likely to be 16.76 million or about 1.7 crore in 2073. That means Kashmir valley’s population alone would double in the next 50 years, assuming there is no additional external migration to this place during this period. If there is migration then things are going to get more complicated.
But how is the population growth linked to growth of urban sprawl?
The total land area of Kashmir valley is 15,948 sq. km. As per satellite-based rough estimates, the urban built-up area in Kashmir valley, as of 2023, is 27% of the total land area in the plains. Assuming the projected population of Kashmir to be 16.76 million in 2073, the current urban built-up area is about 4,312.46 sq. km.
Therefore, based on the given assumptions, the projected urban built-up area in Kashmir in 2073 would be approximately 8,020.7 sq. km; which is about double than the current built-up area.
Likely state of Srinagar in 2073
The estimated population of Srinagar city in 2023 is 1.48 million. Assuming the same decadal population growth rate of 29.98%, the projected population of Srinagar in 2073 is estimated to be 2.75 million or 27 lakhs. This means Srinagar city’s population will be about double the current population, and that its urban sprawl would have grown almost double, stretching the city’s boundaries close to the current towns in North and South Kashmir. If there is external migration to the city, then, again, urban expansion is likely to be more.
Implications:
With a double built up area just within the Kashmir valley in the next 50 years, it is easy to imagine that there would be barely any greenery left within the Kashmir plains. Whole of Kashmir valley would look like a big and chaotic city. The little greenery found between the current towns and cities would be gone almost completely. The only green spaces left, perhaps, would be areas above the Karewas in the protected forest areas.
Impact on ecology and environment
With a scenario like this, most of Kashmir’s existing water bodies, except the protected ones, perhaps, would be gone. The loss of green cover would have resulted in a major change in precipitation patterns. Environmental and air pollution may have reached alarming levels. Kashmir would no more be the place of natural and aesthetic beauty, as it looks today.
This situation may mean a high stress on drinking water availability and food security as well.
Environmentalists now call upon introduction of floor space index and a strict bar on constructions on agricultural lands so that the remaining green land could be protected.
Heritage architects also urge for introduction of an architecture code so that buildings are built as per Kashmir’s traditional aesthetics.
“What is being built in commercial sphere is mostly ugly. Residential spaces are largely aesthetically beautiful. We need an architectural code so that there is uniformity in constructions, mainly on roadside commercial buildings, based on Kashmir’s heritage architecture”, says Furqan Ahmed, an architect, specialising in heritage architecture.
Impact on livelihoods:
Economists also worry for the loss of sustainable livelihoods in the event of unabated loss of lands to unproductive constructions.
“About 70% of Kashmir’s population is dependent on horticulture and agriculture. If the limited land is lost to constructions then most of the livelihoods will be gone. Then the question is what would people do for their livelihood innthat case?”, questions Sameer Ahmed, an agronomist.
Impact on tourism
With a huge urban sprawl and loss of natural beauty, Kashmir valley is likely to look like any other metropolitan city. Likely traffic jams would make it less attractive to tourism. While some of the existing health resorts like Yusmarg, Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Pahalgam may have remained unchanged for the state’s protection measures in place, the rest of the natural environment would have undergone a major change, and Kashmir may have lost its tourism USP.
Disclaimer: This scenario exercise is based on certain assumptions with regard to urban expansion, economic growth and population growth. The actual environmental and natural habitat situation may differ from this in the event of any changes in the assumptions underlying this analysis.
