مغربی راجستھان، مشرقی راجستھان، ہماچل پردیش، جموں و کشمیر، ہریانہ، چنڈی گڑھ اور دہلی (ایچ سی ڈی)، ذیلی ہمالیائی مغربی بنگال اور سکم (ایس ایچ ڈبلیو بی) ، جھارکھنڈ، چھتیس گڑھ ، اوڈیشہ، مراٹھواڑہ اور ودربھ میں درجہ حرارت معمول سے کم رہنے کا امکان
جنوری 2021 کے لیے موسم پر ایک نظر
درجہ حرارت سے متعلق تصویر ,10a 10b اور 10c جنوری 2021 کے لیے بالترتیب اوسط کم، زیادہ سے زیادہ اور درمیانی درجہ حرارت کے سب ڈویژنل امکانات کو دکھاتی ہے۔
کم از کم درجہ حرارت کے لیے امکانی پیشین گوئی(تصویر 10a) دکھاتی ہے کہ مغربی راجستھان، مشرقی راجستھان، ہماچل پردیش، جموں وکشمیر، ہریانہ، چنڈی گڑھ اور دہلی (ایچ سی ڈی)، ذیلی ہمالیائی مغربی بنگال اور سکم (ایس ایچ ڈبلیو بی) ، جھارکھنڈ، چھتیس گڑھ ، اوڈیشہ، مراٹھواڑہ اور ودربھ میں درجہ حرارت معمول سے کم رہنے کا امکان ہے۔
ملک کے بقیہ سب ڈویژن میں درجہ حرارت کم از کم کے معمول سے اوپررہنے کا امکان ہے۔
زیادہ سے زیادہ درجہ حرارت کے لیے امکانی پیشین گوئی (تصویر 10b) بتاتی ہے کہ ہندوستان کے جنوبی جزیرہ کے تمام سب ڈویژن اور مرکزی ہندوستان کے زیادہ تر سب ڈویژن (مغربی اور مشرقی مدھیہ پردیش، ودربھ، مراٹھ واڑہ اور مدھیہ مہاراشٹر) اور مغربی ہندوستان کے کچھ سب ڈویژن (گجرات خطہ اور سوراشٹر اور کچھ) میں معمول سے کم زیادہ سے زیادہ درجہ حرارت رہنے کا امکان ہے۔ ملک کے باقی سب ڈویژن میں معمول سے زیادہ درجہ حرارت رہنے کا امکان ہے۔
درمیانی درجہ حرارت کی امکانی پیشین گوئی (تصویر10c) بتاتی ہے کہ ہندوستان کے زیادہ تر سب ڈیژن میں معمول سے کم درمیانی درجہ حرارت رہنے کا امکان ہے۔ تاہم معمول سے زیادہ درمیانی درجہ حرارت کونکن اور گوا، ساحلی کرناٹک، ساحلی آندھرا پردیش، ہمالیہ کی ترائی کے زیادہ تر سب ڈویژن اور شمال مشرقی ہندوستان میں رہنے کا امکان ہے۔ کیرالہ اور تمل ناڈو میں معمول درمیانی درجہ حرارت کا امکان ہے۔
بارش کی پیشین گوئی
پہلے ہفتے میں بارش: (7 سے 13 جنوری 2021)
- افغانستان کے مغربی علاقوں اور پڑوس کے مرکزی اور اوپری علاقوں میں سمندری طوفان کی وجہ سےمغربی خرابیوں کے زیر اثر مغربی ہمالیائی خطوں میں ہلکی بارش / برف باری اور پنجاب، ہریانہ، شمال مشرقی راجستھان اور مغربی اترپردیش میں 8 جنوری 2021 کو ایک دو جگہ بارش ہونے کا امکان ہے، جبکہ اگلے پانچ چھ دنوں میں شمال مشرقی ہندوستان میں ایسے کسی بھی موسم کی امید نہیں ہے۔
- جنوب مشرقی بحرعرب کے اوپر سمندری طوفان اور جنوبی تمل ناڈو کے ساحلی علاقوں اور پڑوس کی نچلی سطحوں میں دیگر سمندری ہواؤں کے سبب اگلے دو تین دنوں میں ہندوستان کے جنوبی جزیرہ کے علاقوں میں کہیں کہیں زبردست بارش اور بجلی کی کڑک کے ساتھ درمیانی درجے کی بارش کا امکان ہے۔
- کرناٹک سے مہاراشٹر تک کے ساحلی علاقوں میں اس اثر کی وجہ سے اگلے دو دنوں میں مہاراشٹر کے اوپر بجلی کی کڑک کےساتھ درمیانی درجے کی آندھی اور بارش کا امکان ہے۔
- اس کے بعد مشرقی سے آنے والی تازہ لہر کے اثر سے تمل ناڈو، پڈوچیری اور کرائیکل اور کیرالہ اور ماہے میں 10 اور 11 جنوری 2021 کو بڑے پیمانے پر بارش اور ایک دو مقام پر ہلکی پھلکی بارش ہونے کا امکان ہے۔
- اس ہفتہ میں ملک کے باقی حصوں میں اتنی بارش نہیں ہوگی۔
- مجموعی طور پر پہلے ہفتہ میں (تصویر 11 اور 12) جنوبی جزیرہ اور مرکزی ہندوستان میں معمول سے زیادہ بارش اور مغربی ہمالیائی خطہ میں معمول سے کم بارش / برفباری ہونے کا امکان ہے۔
دوسرے ہفتہ میں بارش: (14 سے 20 جنوری، 2021):
- کسی بھی سرگرم مغربی خرابیوں کی غیر موجودگی کی وجہ سے، مغربی ہمالیائی خطہ میں بھی معمول سے کم بارش / برفباری کا امکان ہے۔ تازہ مشرقی لہروں کی وجہ سے جنوبی ہندوستان میں معمول اور معمول سے زیادہ بارش ہو سکتی ہے (تصویر 11 اور 12)۔
تیسرے ہفتہ میں بارش: (22 سے 28 جنوری، 2021):
- ہندوستان کے دور دراز کے جنوب مشرقی جزیرہ میں معمول سے کم اور مغربی ہمالیائی خطہ میں معمول سے زیادہ بارش ہونے کا امکان ہے۔ ملک کے باقی حصوں میں موسم خشک رہے گا (تصویر 11 اور 12)۔
یکم اکتوبر سے 31 اکتوبر 2020 کے دوران ہندوستان کے جنوب مشرقی جزیرہ میں شمال مشرقی مانسون کی حالت
پانچ موسمیاتی سب ڈویژن، یعنی تمل ناڈو، ساحلی آندھرا پردیش، رائل سیما، کیرالہ اور جنوبی جزیرہ کے جنوبی اندرونی کرناٹک میں شمال مشرقی (این ای) مانسون سیزن (اکتوبر سے دسمبر تک) کے دوران مجموعی طور پر اس کی سالانہ بارش میں سے 30 فیصد بارش ہوتی ہے۔ خاص کر تمل ناڈو میں اس کی کل سالانہ بارش میں سے 48 فیصد بارش اسی سیزن میں ہوتی ہے۔ تصویر 1 2020-1901 کے دوران مجموعی طور پر ان پانچ سب ڈویژن میں ہونے والی شمال مشرقی مانسون کی بارش کو دکھاتی ہے۔ یہ دکھاتی ہے کہ اکتوبر- دسمبر 2020 کے دوران این ای ایم آر حد سے زیادہ ہے، جب حقیقی بارش 33.76 سینٹی میٹر کے طویل مدتی اوسط سے 10.3 فیصد اوپر رہی۔ یہ گزشتہ 5 سالوں کے دوران (2020-2016) سب سے زیادہ ہے۔
سال 2020 میں، تمل ناڈو میں این ای ایم آر کی پیش رفت بہت مختلف رہی کیوں کہ 11 نومبر تک سیزن کی مجموعی بارش کم رہی۔ یکم اکتوبر سے 11 نومبر 2020 تک یہ بارش معمول سے 46 فیصد کم رہی۔ تاہم تمل ناڈو اور پڈوچیری اور پڑوسی جنوب مشرقی جزیرہ میں نومبر 2020 کے دوسرے نصف اور دسمبر 2020 کے پہلے ہفتہ میں اس بارش میں اضافہ ہواکیوں کہ اس مدت کے دوران تمل ناڈو کے ساحلی علاقوں میں سمندری ہوائیں واپس آنے لگی تھیں۔ انتہائی شدید سمندری طوفان ‘نیوار’ خلیج بنگال سے (21 سے 27 نومبر) شمالی تمل ناڈو تک پھیلا ہوا تھا۔ سمندری طوفان ‘بریوی’ (ایک سے 3 دسمبر 2020) سری لنکا کے ساحل سے آگے بڑھتے ہوئے 2 دسمبر 2020 کو خلیج منار میں آگیا، پھر جنوبی تمل ناڈو کے ساحل کو پار کرتا ہوا 3 دسمبر کو پمبن کے قریب پہنچ گیا اور بعد میں خلیج منار میں رام ناتھ پورم ضلع کے ساحل کے قریب کمزور پڑنے لگا۔ اس کے بعد یہ اسی علاقے میں مزید کمزور ہوگیا اور 5 دسمبر 2020 تک 36 گھنٹوں کے لیے عملی طور پر ساکت رہا۔ اس کے نتیجے میں ایک اکتوبر سے 9 دسمبر 2020 کے دوران مجموعی بارش تمل ناڈو میں معمول سے تھوڑا بہتر رہی۔ -2 دسمبر کو 16 فیصد اور 9 دسمبر 2020 کو 9 فیصد کا اضافہ ہوا۔ تاہم دسمبر 2020کے باقی دنوں میں یعنی 10 سے 31 دسمبر جزیرہ والے خطے میں زیادہ بارش نہیں ہوئی۔ تمل ناڈو میں مجموعی این ای ایم آر 2020 یکم اکتوبر سے 31 دسمبر تک گھٹ کر 6 فیصد ہوگئی تھی۔ (تصویر 2 دیکھیں)
ملک میں ماہانہ بارش کا منظر (ایک سے 31 دسمبر 2020)
دسمبر 2020 میں ملک میں مجموعی طور پر بارش 17 ملی میٹر درج کی گئی، جو کہ 17.4 ملی میٹر کے طویل مدتی اوسط (ایل پی اے) سے 2 فیصد کم ہے، جبکہ جنوبی جزیرے میں ایل پی اے سے 53 فیصد زیادہ بارش ہوئی۔ تفصیلات درج ذیل ہیں:
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