Before Kashmir shakes: Prepare for 72 hours. Plan for 7 days.

Our First Response May Begin at Home.

By Mauzam Bakshi

What If Kashmir Is Struck by a Magnitude 8 Earthquake?

This is not a prediction. It is a worst-case preparedness scenario, an exercise in asking what Kashmir could face if an extreme earthquake were to strike and how first responders, households, communities and institutions should prepare for its consequences.

The question is not new. In the aftermath of the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005, serious efforts were undertaken to improve public awareness, preparedness and disaster-response capacity. Authorities, Scientists, Researchers and Disaster-management Experts participated in a number of awareness and preparedness exercises, including programmes involving the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM).

One such exercise was held at IMPA (Institute of Management, Public Administration and Rural Development), Srinagar, where the discussion and table-top exercise centred on a deliberately extreme scenario: what would happen if Kashmir were struck by an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater. The exercise reflected concerns raised by seismologist Professor Roger Bilham, who had warned that the Himalayan region had the potential for a very large earthquake. The purpose was not to predict when such an earthquake might occur, but to examine its possible consequences and more importantly, to understand what could be done before, during and after such an event.

Nearly two decades later, that exercise remains relevant.

The central question has changed little: If an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater were to strike Kashmir, would we be prepared for the first 72 hours and for the possibility that normal life could remain disrupted for days or even weeks.

That is the scenario this article revisits not as a forecast, but as a preparedness exercise. A magnitude 8 or greater earthquake could produce widespread structural damage and trigger a cascade of secondary emergencies—collapsed buildings, landslides, rockfalls, damaged roads and bridges, disrupted electricity and water supplies, telecommunication failures, overwhelmed hospitals and communities temporarily cut off from the rest of the region.

The shaking may last only minutes. The emergency could last much longer. For Kashmir, that distinction should shape how preparedness is approached. The central message is simple:

“Prepare for 72 hours. Plan for seven days”.

The first 72 hours are about immediate survival and household self-reliance. Seven days is a prudent planning horizon for sustained disruption in a region where difficult terrain, damaged infrastructure and landslides could delay access and restoration of essential services. Kashmir has already experienced the consequences of a major earthquake in October 2005. The disaster demonstrated that the consequences of a major earthquake do not end when the shaking stops. More than two decades later, the lesson remains relevant.

The question is not whether Kashmir can predict the next earthquake. It cannot. The question is whether Kashmir can be better prepared for the worst credible consequences.

During the shaking: the first priority is survival

During strong shaking, there is no time for complicated decisions. The priority is life safety.

Drop. Cover. Hold On.

People indoors should stay inside and protect themselves from falling objects, preferably beneath sturdy furniture. Keep away from windows, glass and unsecured furniture. Do not use lifts. Those outdoors should move away from buildings, walls, utility lines, trees and other structures that could fall.

Running for an exit during severe shaking can expose people to falling debris and other hazards. Evacuation becomes necessary when there is an immediate threat such as fire, structural failure or other life-threatening danger. The first minutes are not about rescue.

They are about survival.

The first hour

When the shaking stops, the emergency enters a new phase. Aftershocks may follow. Buildings damaged by the main shock may collapse. Electrical wires may fall. Roads and bridges may become unsafe. The immediate priorities are therefore straightforward: check for injuries, provide basic first aid where it is safe to do so, account for family members and move away from immediate hazards.

Children, elderly people, persons with disabilities and those dependent on regular medicines may require particular attention. A damaged building should not be re-entered simply to retrieve belongings.

Emergency routes should be kept clear. Unnecessary travel can obstruct ambulances, fire services, police and rescue teams. Reliable information will also be critical. Official warnings and instructions should take precedence over rumours and unverified information circulating through social media.

The first hour is not the time to improvise a disaster plan.

It is the time to follow one that already exists.

The first 24 hours

The first day will be dominated by search and rescue, emergency medical care, fire response, evacuation from dangerous structures and rapid damage assessment.

The earthquake could affect several districts simultaneously. Emergency services may have to respond to multiple collapsed structures, blocked roads and medical emergencies at the same time. Hospitals could face a sudden surge of casualties. Telecommunications may be congested or unavailable. Electricity and water systems may fail. Mountain roads could be blocked by landslides.

For households, the priorities will be basic but decisive: remain safe, account for family members, treat injuries, secure shelter, conserve water and food and remain informed. This is where preparation made before the earthquake becomes critical.

Every household should have an accessible emergency reserve kit containing drinking water, ready-to-eat food, essential medicines, first-aid supplies, torches, batteries or alternative lighting, power banks, warm clothing and blankets (if it is winter), hygiene supplies, basic tools and important documents.

The emergency kit should be kept where it can still be reached after an earthquake.

The first 72 hours

The first three days could be the most demanding period for emergency services.

In a worst-case scenario, casualties could occur across a wide area at the same time. Rescue teams may have to prioritise the locations. Hospitals may exceed normal capacity. Roads could remain blocked. Communications may be unreliable. Relief supplies may not reach every locality immediately.

This is why 72-hour preparedness matters. It does not mean that assistance will take three days to arrive. It means that when an entire region is affected simultaneously, assistance cannot necessarily reach everyone at once.

A household capable of meeting its basic needs for 72 hours creates valuable time for professional responders to concentrate on those in the greatest danger.

The first three days should therefore be treated as the minimum period during which every household should be prepared to function with limited outside assistance.

But Kashmir’s planning should not stop there.

Days 4 to 7

By the fourth day, the nature of the emergency may begin to change. The immediate search for survivors and treatment of the critically injured will remain priorities, but sustaining affected populations will become increasingly important.

Water, food, sanitation, temporary shelter, medicines, heating (if it is winter) and communications may need to be maintained for communities whose normal services have not yet been restored.

Buildings will require systematic safety assessment before people return. Hospitals, schools, bridges, major roads, water systems, electricity installations and telecommunications infrastructure will require inspection and where necessary, temporary alternatives.

For communities cut off by landslides, damaged bridges or blocked mountain roads, the situation could be considerably more difficult.

A community does not have to be destroyed to become vulnerable. It may simply become inaccessible.

That is why the seven-day horizon matters. Seven days is not a prediction that the emergency will end or even that it will last exactly a week. It is a prudent planning horizon for a worst-case scenario, particularly in a region where terrain and infrastructure damage can delay rescue, relief and restoration.

Some areas may recover essential services within days. Others may remain disrupted for considerably longer.

Kashmir cannot have a single earthquake plan

The earthquake would not affect every part of Kashmir in the same way. In densely populated areas of the Kashmir Valley, some settlements could remain structurally intact but become isolated.

This makes district-wise and physiography-sensitive earthquake planning essential. The Kashmir Valley has different terrain, settlement patterns, infrastructure and access constraints. Preparedness plans must recognise those differences.

Each vulnerable district should know its critical facilities, likely access problems, alternative routes, emergency resources, communications options, potential shelter locations and communities that may require particular assistance.

The first response may begin at home

The earthquake would test the entire emergency-management system and it would also test the resilience of ordinary households and communities.

The first person to assist an injured neighbour may not be a professional responder. It may be a family member, a nearby resident, a trained first-aider, a doctor, nurse, engineer, firefighter, police officer, driver, municipal worker or trained volunteer.

That local capacity can save lives. But it must be exercised responsibly. Untrained people should not enter unstable structures or attempt technically complex rescue operations without appropriate equipment and supervision.

Community preparedness should support professional emergency response, not interfere with it.

There is also a deeply rooted social dimension to this responsibility.

For a society shaped by Islamic values, protecting human life, helping those in distress, caring for neighbours and standing with the vulnerable are practical responsibilities, particularly in times of crisis. The spirit of helping one another, that is embedded in Kashmiri society can become an important part of disaster resilience.

But compassion must be accompanied by discipline. People should help where they can, avoid creating additional risks and rely on verified information.

Faith can provide courage and patience in a crisis, preparedness gives that courage practical direction.

Preparedness begins before the earthquake

The most important work will happen long before the first tremor.

Families need to establish meeting points and communication arrangements. Emergency supplies need to be assembled. Important documents should be protected. Essential medicines should be accessible. Children should know what to do during strong shaking. Vulnerable members of the household should be identified.

Communities should know who may need assistance and what local resources are available.

At the institutional level, hospitals require continuity plans. Emergency operations centres must be functional. Communications systems need redundancy. Critical infrastructure must be strengthened for seismic resilience. Alternative routes to vulnerable communities should be identified. Essential relief supplies should be pre-positioned where geography makes rapid access difficult.

All these arrangements must be tested.

A disaster plan that exists only on paper is not preparedness.

The purpose of preparing for a magnitude 8 earthquake is not to create fear. It is to recognise that the consequences of a worst-case event could be enormous and that preparation can reduce the human cost.

The first 72 hours are about survival.

The following four days are about sustaining life and maintaining essential support while systems are restored.

Seven days is the planning horizon. It is not the end of the emergency. For some communities, recovery may take weeks, months or even years.

But the difference between a household that has prepared and one that has not, could be measured in hours when those hours matter most.

A great earthquake may last only minutes but its consequences may last far longer. We cannot predict the day or hour when the earth will move again. But we can decide how prepared we will be when it does.

Prepare for 72 hours. Plan for seven days.

The earthquake itself may be beyond our control. The level of preparedness is not.

We cannot choose the day the earth moves.

We can choose how ready we are when it does.