By: Nadia Fayaz – Ziraat Times
Srinagar, Feb 15 : As winter snow thins across Kashmir’s slopes, climate scientists and tourism stakeholders are asking an uncomfortable question: could Gulmarg follow the fate of several European ski resorts already forced to shut down due to rising temperatures and unreliable snowfall?
Europe’s vanishing dnowlines
Across Europe, warming winters have pushed many low- and mid-altitude ski areas to the brink. Several resorts have either closed or announced permanent shutdowns in recent years:
Grand Puy (France) – Closed indefinitely in 2023 after repeated snow-poor winters.
Alpe du Grand Serre (France) – Announced closure plans citing financial losses linked to dwindling snow.
Col du Corbier (France) – Shut down permanently after consecutive mild winters.
Krippenstein (Austria, lower sections) – Has repeatedly struggled with shortened seasons due to snow scarcity.
Campo Felice (Italy) – Increasingly dependent on artificial snow amid warming trends.
In Switzerland, studies have warned that resorts below 1,500 metres could become economically unviable by mid-century without heavy artificial snowmaking. According to research published in Nature Climate Change, up to 53% of European ski resorts face “very high risk” under a 2°C warming scenario.
The 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy have also relied heavily on artificial snow preparation, underlining how marginal natural snowfall has become even in the Alps.
Kashmir’s warming trend: What the data shows
Kashmir’s winter volatility this year — heavy snowfall in higher reaches followed by rapid melting under unseasonably warm sunshine — reflects deeper climatic shifts documented by Indian scientific agencies and regional universities.
IMD Observations
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported:
A rise of approximately 0.8°C to 1.0°C in average temperatures over Jammu & Kashmir in the past two decades, with winter minimum temperatures rising faster than maximums.
A notable decline in winter precipitation, particularly during December–February, over parts of the Western Himalayas.
Increasing frequency of “warm winter days,” reducing snow retention periods.
IMD’s long-term Himalayan climate assessments show that the Western Himalayan region has warmed at a rate higher than the global average in certain winter months.
IUST findings
Researchers at the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), Awantipora, analysing 30-year temperature datasets, have documented:
A mean annual temperature increase of around 0.6°C to 1.2°C across different stations in Kashmir since the 1990s.
A decline in snow cover duration by nearly 10–15 days in several mid-altitude zones.
A measurable reduction in Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), indicating thinner, less durable snowpacks.
One IUST-linked study on Western Himalayan cryosphere trends noted that rising winter temperatures correlate strongly with shorter snow seasons and earlier spring melt.
University of Kashmir – Earth Sciences Department
Studies by the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Kashmir have shown:
A statistically significant warming trend of 0.9°C over the last 20 years in parts of the Kashmir Valley.
Increased winter dry spells and delayed snowfall onset during Chillai Kalan.
Negative correlation between rising winter temperatures and snow cover persistence.
Researchers have also observed that south- and west-facing slopes — such as those in Gulmarg — are particularly vulnerable to accelerated melt under higher solar radiation combined with warming air temperatures.
Gulmarg at a crossroads
Perched at about 2,650 metres, Gulmarg has long been considered climatically secure compared to lower-altitude European resorts. Yet this year’s pattern — 3–4 feet of snow melting substantially within 20 days — suggests that even high-altitude destinations are not immune.
Other Kashmiri destinations including Pahalgam, Doodhpathri, and Yusmarg have seen similarly rapid snow depletion on exposed slopes.
For now, Gulmarg remains operational and viable. But the broader climate trajectory — documented by IMD and regional academic institutions — suggests that its future will depend less on nostalgia and more on climate resilience planning.
If the Alps are a warning, Kashmir would do well to listen.
