J&K economy: Official data on GSDP debunks claims of major economic slump?

By: Imtiyaz Shah – Ziraat Times

Srinagar, Feb 22: Recent reports by several national dailies claiming a significant contraction or “slump” in Jammu & Kashmir’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) have been proven incorrect. According to official data from the National Statistical Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Govt of India and the J&K Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in the Legislative Assembly, the Union Territory’s economy has not only crossed the ₹2.8 lakh crore mark but has maintained a steady growth trajectory despite post-pandemic global headwinds.

The “incorrect report” mystery: What went wrong?

The confusion in earlier media reports appears to have stemmed from a misinterpretation of Real vs. Nominal GSDP figures and the transition between “Projected” and “Revised” estimates.

Some national outlets incorrectly reported a “decline” by comparing the Real GSDP growth rate (inflation-adjusted) of one year directly against the Nominal GSDP growth rate of another. Furthermore, several reports failed to account for the base year revision and the distinction between the GSDP of the erstwhile State (pre-2019) and the current Union Territory.

The real numbers: J&K GSDP across the years

The following table provides the official GSDP figures for Jammu & Kashmir as per the most recent government and RBI data (at current prices):

Note: RE = Revised Estimates; AE = Advance Estimates.

Economic highlights & sectoral performance

The official report clarifies that J&K’s economy remains a service-led model, with the Tertiary Sector contributing 61.02% to the Gross State Value Added (GSVA).

Real Growth: While nominal growth is in double digits, the Real GSDP (at constant prices) is estimated to grow at 5.82% in 2025-26, showing structural stabilization.

Per Capita Income: J&K’s per capita income reached ₹1,68,243 in 2025-26, growing at a CAGR of 8.81% since 2019, which is notably higher than several neighboring northern states like Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.

Debt-to-GSDP Ratio: Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently noted that although total debt stands at ₹1.37 lakh crore, the expanding GSDP has actually helped reduce the debt-to-GSDP ratio from 51% to 48%.

The narrative of an “economic decline” was largely a result of statistical oversight. The official RBI data confirms that Jammu & Kashmir is moving from a phase of “recovery” to “structural expansion,” with tourism and infrastructure serving as the primary engines of this growth.