Srinagar: A medium-scale Western Disturbance is likely to affect Jammu & Kashmir and parts of north India between January 22 and 24, bringing widespread snowfall across the Valley and adjoining mountainous sub-regions of the Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal, according to Ziraat Times’ analysis based on prevailing synoptic conditions and model trends.
The core impact period is expected to be January 23 and 24, mainly on late Thursday and Friday, when moderate to heavy snowfall is likely over higher reaches of North, Central and South Kashmir, while Valley plains, including Srinagar, may also witness snowfall or a rain–snow mix.
Lower reaches of the Jammu plains are more likely to witness rain or a rain–snow mix, while higher areas of the Pir Panjal and Chenab Valley regions, such as Wadwan, Kishtwar, Reasi, Banihal, Upper Ramban, Upper Udhampur, Doda and Bhaderwah, could receive light to moderate snowfall during the same period.
Here is Ziraat Times’ district-wise outlook:
Central Kashmir
In Srinagar city, adjoining plains, Karewa belts and Zabarwan foothills, snowfall is expected mainly during peak system activity. Accumulations are likely to remain moderate, with 10–30 cm (4–12 inches) possible over the entire spell, subject to temperature profiles. In Upper Srinagar (Harwan, Dachigam fringe, Zabarwan foothills), 10–25 cm (4–10 inches) is possible.
Budgam District
Budgam plains, Chadoora and Magam: Moderate snowfall likely, especially on January 23–24. Expected accumulation: 10–20 cm (4–8 inches).
Doodhpather–Yousmarg belt: Higher elevation areas may receive 20–40 cm (8–16 inches), with brief heavy spells.
Ganderbal District
Ganderbal town and the lower Sindh belt: Moderate snowfall expected. The Sindh Valley axis, including Sonamarg, is expected to receive moderate to heavy snowfall, with 15–50 cm (6–20 inches) likely between January 22 and 25, raising the possibility of intermittent disruptions along the Sonamarg–Zojila stretch.
North Kashmir
Higher reaches of Kupwara, Gurez, Bandipora and upper Baramulla, along with mountain passes such as Razdan Top and Sadhna Pass, are likely to receive heavy snowfall, ranging from 30 cm to over one metre at elevations above 2,000 metres. Lower areas may receive moderate snow, especially during peak days.
Baramulla District
Baramulla town and lower areas: Moderate snowfall expected. Expected accumulation: 10–20 cm (4–8 inches).
Gulmarg, Tangmarg and higher reaches: 30–60 cm (12–24 inches) or more on upper slopes, especially during peak days.
Kupwara District
Kupwara plains and Lolab Valley: Moderate snowfall expected. Expected accumulation: 15–25 cm (6–10 inches).
Keran, Machil and upper Kupwara: Heavy snowfall likely, 30–70 cm (1–2+ feet) over the full spell.
Bandipora District
Bandipora town and Wular periphery: Moderate snowfall. Expected accumulation: 10–20 cm (4–8 inches).
Gurez Valley: Heavy snowfall likely, 40–80 cm (16–32 inches), with possible temporary isolation during peak days.
South Kashmir
In Pahalgam and adjoining upper belts, including Aru and Betaab Valley, snowfall is expected to be moderate to heavy, with accumulations of 20–50 cm (8–20 inches). Lower areas of Anantnag, Kulgam and Shopian may initially see mixed precipitation before turning to snow as temperatures drop.
Pulwama District: Pulwama town and low-lying areas: Initial rain/snow mix shifting to snow as temperatures drop. Expected accumulation: 8–15 cm (3–6 inches). Tral and upper Pampore belts: Slightly higher accumulation, 15–25 cm (6–10 inches) possible.
Shopian District: Shopian town and orchards: Moderate snowfall expected, beneficial for chilling requirements of orchards but may affect mobility. Expected accumulation: 15–25 cm (6–10 inches). Higher reaches towards Pir Panjal: 25–40 cm (10–16 inches) likely.
Anantnag District: Anantnag town and Jhelum belt: Rain–snow mix initially; snow likely during peak system activity. Expected accumulation: 8–18 cm (3–7 inches). Pahalgam, Aru and Betaab Valley: 20–50 cm (8–20 inches) expected, with heavier snowfall at higher altitudes.
Kulgam District: Kulgam plains: Moderate snowfall during January 23–24. Expected accumulation: 10–20 cm (4–8 inches). Upper belts towards Pir Panjal: 20–35 cm (8–14 inches) possible.
Note: Ziraat Times issues weather forecasts and outlooks in the interest of farmers and the general public to address the need for specific and detailed geographical forecasts. ZT forecasts are based on the analysis of multiple weather data, including cloud movement models, localized cloud formation, temperature and wind-speed differential models within J&K and surrounding regions, past weather patterns and traditional knowledge. It may be noted that we do not rely on online weather portals for predictions and therefore avoid issuing long- and medium-term forecasts, which are mostly unreliable. While maximum care is taken in generating this information and our forecasts are accurate most of the time, there may be instances when conditions do not evolve as anticipated. Readers are advised to exercise discretion in using this information.
