J&K’s melting ice: A real challenge 

By: Er Mohammad Ashraf Fazili (Former Chief Engineer)

The state of earth’s ice and snow affects every living being. The UN proclaimed the decade of action for Cryospheric Sciences 2025-2034 to advance scientific research of the Cryosphere as critical to understanding our climate and water cycle.

The UN has declared 2025 as the international year of ‘Glacier Preservation’ to raise global awareness of the critical connections between the cryosphere, climate change, the water cycle, the economy and society. The 2025 edition is titled ‘water towers: Mountains and Glaciers.’

Ice acts like a protective cover of the earth and our oceans. Glaciers can range from ice that is several hundred to several thousand years old and provide a scientific record of how climate has changed over time. Today about 10 percent of land area on earth is covered with glacial ice. Almost 90 percent is in Antarctica, while the remaining 10 percent is in the Greenland ice cap.

Rapid glacial melt in Antarctica and Greenland also influences ocean currents, as massive amounts of very cold glacial-melt water are slowing ocean currents and as ice on land melts, sea levels will continue to rise.

The geography of the world 18,000 years ago was very different from today’s as observed in the reconstruction of two hemispheres. Air temperatures show these were lower a few degrees. The sea level was lower too as so much water was trapped in the ice caps. Similar conditions could return one day.

Man is caught between two trends. There is a long-term drift towards glaciation, but the planet is also heating up as carbon dioxide accumulates in the air.

In the greenhouse effect carbon dioxide keeps the earth warm by preventing infra-red radiation from escaping into space. Plants and animals all absorb the gas during their lifetimes and when they die a quantity is stored with them. When we burn logs or use fossil fuels such as coal and oil, we unlock the deposit box and return carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Levels of carbon dioxide are expected to rise by 75 % before the middle of next century.

Computer models suggest that this world could cause an average rise of up to 8 degrees F (4.5 degrees C) in world temperature making climate warmer than in the past one lakh years.

World glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, with all 19 glacier regions experiencing mass loss for the third consecutive year according to the UN. Thus, driven by climate change, with a study of nature revealing an average annual ice loss of 273 billion tons since 2000, a significant increase from previous decades. Over the past decade there is a sharp increase of glacier melting. Between 2000 and 2003, glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica lost around 270 billion tons of ice per year on average. Over the past two decades the glacier melt accounted for 21% of the global sea level rise. The melting glaciers have significant implications for water resources, ecosystems, and coastal communities, especially in regions heavily reliant on glacial meltwater, like parts of Asia. Many glaciers, including those in Western Canada, Central Europe, the Caucasus, New Zealand, and the Tropics, are projected not to survive the 21st century at current melt rates.

Almost half of the Alps ice volume will disappear by 2080 if the melting trend of the last two decades continues. Antarctica is losing ice mass at an average rate of about 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing about 270 billion tons per year adding to sea level.

Reduced glacial melt could lead to water shortages for human and agricultural use in many regions.

Rising sea levels due to melting glaciers and ice sheets pose a significant threat to coastal communities and infrastructure. Melting glaciers and changing temperatures can disrupt ecosystems and threaten biodiversity.

Since the early 1900s, many glaciers around the world have been rapidly melting. Human activities are the root cause. Since the industrial revolution, carbon monoxide and greenhouse gas emissions have raised temperatures, even higher than the poles and as a result glaciers are rapidly melting, calving off into the sea and retreating the land.

It is said that even if we curb emissions largely in the coming decades, a third of the world’s remaining glaciers will melt before the year 2100. When it comes to sea ice, 95 percent of the oldest and thickest ice in the arctic is already gone.

Scientists project that if emissions continue to rise unchecked, the Arctic could be ice free in the summer of the year 2040 as ocean and as temperatures continue to rise rapidly.

The Arctic is stated to be warming twice as fast as anywhere on earth, and the sea ice is declining by more than 10 percent every decade. As this ice melts, darker patches of ocean start to emerge, eliminating the effect that previously cooled the poles, creating warmer air temperatures and in turn disrupting normal patterns of ocean circulation. This is linked to the collapse of fisheries in the Gulf of Maine and more destructive storms and hurricanes around the planet.

As sea ice and glaciers melt and oceans warm, ocean currents will continue to disrupt weather patterns worldwide. Industries that thrive on fisheries will be affected as warmer waters change where and when fish spawn. Coastal communities will continue to face billion-dollar disaster recovery bills as flooding becomes more frequent and storms become more intense. People are not the only ones affected. In the Arctic, as sea ice melts, wildlife like walrus are losing their home and polar bears are spending more time on land, causing higher rates of conflict between people and bears.

In central Europe, almost 40% of the remaining ice has melted and glaciers are projected to disappear in the Alps by the end of the century.

Similarly, glaciers in the Garhwal Himalaya in India are retreating so fast that most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could virtually disappear by 2035.

The prominent glaciers on retreat in J&K region including Ladakh are Siachen, Baltoro, Hispar, Nubra, Machol, Thajiwas, Drang-Drung, and Shafat. The largest glacier in Kashmir and the fastest retreating one is Kolohai glacier besides other ones like Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, the Glaciers around Harmukh, and the Gangotri, Zemu, Pindari, Saltoro, Hari Parbat, Chong Kmdan, Kazi N glaciers.

The melting of Kolohoi glacier the vital source of water for river Jhelum passing through the heart of the Kashmir Valley has resulted in the reduced level of river Jhelum which was rendered almost dry in the last winter. It is stated that there has been a loss of about 25% of its area since last four decades, which is greater than other glaciers in Himalayas and is bound to accelerate in future due to climate change.

The average glacier retreat rate in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is 14.9 meters per annum, with variations across different river basins. Himalayan glaciers are losing ice at a rate at least ten times faster than the average rate over the past centuries. As a result the melting of glaciers threatens water supply, biodiversity and livelihoods in the region.

The impact of melting glaciers in Jammu & Kashmir is far-reaching, affecting not only the local ecosystem but also the people dependent on these water sources. It is essential to address this issue through sustainable practices, conservation efforts, and climate change mitigation.

Many seminars have been held World over on World Water Day on March 21 including in J&K UT to raise public concern on the issues of global warming, unplanned urbanization, water pollution, deforestation etc. forecasting future draughts, floods and other disasters due to the glacier melts.

For all this catastrophe the human being is responsible as it is he who continues to disturb the set balance against the prescribed directions from the divine scriptures like the Holy Quran which says:

والسماء رفعها ووضع الميزان الا تطغو فى الميزان

And the heaven, He has raised high, and He has set up the balance. In order that you may not transgress (due) balance (55:78)

We need to know that:

In 2023 glaciers lost more than 600 gigatons of water, the largest mass loss registered in 50 years.

About 70% of earth’s freshwater exists like snow or ice.

Nearly 2 billion people rely on water from glaciers, snowmelt and mountain run-off for drinking, agriculture and energy production.

Increased glacier melting contributes significantly to global sea level, about 20 cm higher than in 1900.

Limiting global warming to 1.5-degrees C could save glaciers in two-thirds of world heritage sites.

Messages:

• Glaciers are melting faster than ever. As the planet gets hotter due to climate change, our frozen world is shrinking, making the water cycle more unpredictable and extreme.

• Glacial retreat threatens devastation. For billions of people, meltwater flows are changing, causing floods, droughts, landslides and sea level rise, and damaging ecosystems.

• Glacial preservation is a survival strategy. We must work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and manage meltwater more sustainably for people and the planet.

• Here everyone needs to play his part from individuals and families to companies, industries and governments – to do what they can to reduce global warming and adapt to shrinking glaciers. The word needs to be spread all around followed by action.