NC-Congress alliance gets the edge; BJP follows close 2nd – Ziraat Times Poll of the Exit Polls

5 October 2024

Srinagar, Oct 5: If various exit polls for the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections are to be believed, the NC-Congress alliance seems to be leading in most projections. However, their combined seat share does not guarantee a comfortable majority, as per the poll of all the exit polls.

The BJP, while performing strongly in Jammu, also falls short of majority expectations, even in its best-case scenarios.

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Even as NC-Congress-PDP kind of political formation seems the dominant takeaway, overall, the results suggest no single party is projected to secure a majority on its own.

Ziraat Times analyses the exit polls of various pollsters, which present differing seat counts for key parties like the National Conference (NC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), and People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

The India Today-CVoter exit poll survey showed that the Opposition’s INDIA bloc (including the National Conference, Congress and others) is likely to win somewhere between seats 40–48 seats in the recently-held Assembly elections, the India Today-CVoter exit poll survey predicted.

Meanwhile, the BJP could end up securing somewhere between 27 and 32 seats in the Union Territory where elections took place after 10 years.

Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to bag 6–12 seats, while others, including independent candidates, may secure 6–11 seats, the survey said.

The INDIA alliance may sweep the Kashmir region by securing 29-33 out of the 46 seats, while the BJP might bag somewhere between 0 and 2 seats.

Meanwhile, the survey also predicted 6-10 seats for Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Kashmir. Others may bag 6-10 seats in the region.

Electoral Edge Mega Exit Poll: In its assessment,

NC-Congress alliance is expected to lead with 45 seats, with NC getting 33 seats and INC getting 12 seats.
BJP follows closely with 27 seats.
PDP is projected to win 8 seats.
Others are estimated to secure 10 seats.

This poll suggests that while NC leads the tally, it remains far short of the 46-seat majority needed in the 90-seat J&K assembly. The BJP is a close second, and the PDP’s 8 seats indicate that they could still play a significant role in coalition dynamics.

People’s Pulse Exit Poll
According to People’s Pulse, the NC-Congress alliance leads with a total of 46-50 seats, just within reach of a majority or slightly surpassing it. The BJP is projected to win 23-27 seats, positioning itself as a strong competitor but still falling short of taking control. This poll places NC-Congress in a strong position, implying that if these projections hold, they could form the government with ease, possibly with some support from smaller parties or independents.

Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll

Dainik Bhaskar’s prediction indicates:
NC-Congress is likely to secure 35-40 seats.
BJP is expected to win 20-25 seats.

This exit poll suggests that the NC-Congress alliance, while strong, will need more seats or support to reach the majority mark. It also hints at the potential for Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP to become a kingmaker, given its anticipated influence.

Matrize Exit Poll
This projection presents a different scenario:
BJP is predicted to win 25 seats.
PDP leads the chart here with 28 seats.
NC is expected to win 15 seats, while Congress is projected at 12 seats.
Others are estimated to secure 7 seats.

Matrize’s numbers suggest a much stronger showing for the PDP, with BJP maintaining a significant presence. If these results materialize, the PDP would emerge as a pivotal player, potentially playing the role of a kingmaker. The relatively low seat count for NC contrasts with other polls, signaling the varied expectations across pollsters.

Omar Abdullah’s Reaction

Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, a key leader of the National Conference, expressed skepticism about these exit polls. He criticized the reliance on such predictions, especially given the inaccurate exit poll results seen in the recent general elections. On X (formerly Twitter), Abdullah stated, “I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections,” adding that he’s ignoring the speculation on social media and waiting for the final results on October 8.

The biggest variable in these polls is the PDP, which is projected to either play a significant or minimal role, depending on the poll. If the PDP performs well, as per Matrize, Mehbooba Mufti’s party could become a kingmaker in coalition-building efforts. Alternatively, in cases where the NC-Congress alliance comes closer to a majority, the PDP’s influence would diminish.