Koan Banega Wazeer-e-Aala? Countdown to J&K’s Assembly poll results begins

5 October 2024

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Srinagar, Oct 5: Koan Banega J&K’s next Wazeer-e-Aala?

The 2024 Assembly elections in J&K promise to be one of the most closely watched political battles in the former state’s history. After 10 years of Governor’s rule, uncertainty and major political upheavals of re-organisation and suspension of statehood, the elections have drawn an intense interest, not only for their potential to shape J&K’s post-2019 political future but also because of the many possible outcomes.

With the opinion polls due for release shortly on Saturday evening, all eyes are on the major contenders, including the National Conference (NC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and a range of smaller but significant players like People’s Conference, Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) and Apni Party.

The battle for the Chief Minister’s post— or Wazeer-e-Aala — is set to be a tight contest, with several big names in the fray.

National Conference’s resurgence

National Conference, one of the oldest and most influential parties in J&K, has seen a phoenix-like resurgence in the Assembly elections. With an improvement in security situation and greater paŕticipation of people in electoral democracy, the NC has been able to galvanize its cadre across J&K, with a new public sentiment surging towards its political position and ideas.

Both Farooq Abdullah and his son, Omar Abdullah, have served as Chief Ministers, and either one could be a potential candidate for the post again. The National Conference is expected to perform strongly in the Kashmir Valley, Pir Panjal, and Chenab regions, riding on the back of its well organised election campaign. The party’s decision to ally with Congress could further strengthen its hand, especially in areas where the Congress holds sway.

Both NC and BJP have ruled out an NC-BJP alliance if the two parties are unable to get a majority. This stance may resonate well with voters in Kashmir, who have traditionally viewed the BJP’s policies with suspicion, especially after the revocation of Article 370. However, it also means that the NC will need to either secure a majority on its own, which seems unlikely, or build a coalition with smaller parties or independents.

If the NC does manage to emerge as the largest party, Omar Abdullah is likely to be the first choice for the Chief Minister’s role. His previous tenure as Chief Minister was marked by both successes and controversies, but he remains a key figure in J&K’s political landscape. Omar is seen as a moderate, capable of balancing the aspirations of both Jammu and Kashmir, though his position of introducing a bill in the Assembly to reject the decisions of 5 August 2019 could limit his prospects of leading the government.

The BJP’s bid for power

For the BJP, this election is critical. The party has promised to form a Jammu-centric government, buoyed by the belief that it has a strong hold over Jammu plains and parts of Pirpanjal and Chenab valleys. Leading the charge for the BJP is Ravinder Raina, the party’s state president, who has emerged as a key figure in consolidating support across the region. BJP leaders have asserted their confidence in securing a majority or, at the very least, being the largest single party. However, the road to forming the government is fraught with challenges.

Jammu, a BJP stronghold, will undoubtedly give the party significant numbers, but the overall composition of the Assembly may require the party to seek coalition partners. This is where the BJP’s challenge lies. Both the National Conference and PDP have ruled out any alliance with the BJP, which complicates the equation. Despite its electoral strength, the BJP may find itself in a situation where it leads in numbers but cannot form the government due to the lack of coalition partners from the Valley.

If the BJP does secure the largest number of seats, Ravinder Raina is seen as the frontrunner for the Chief Minister’s post. His consistent advocacy for Jammu’s interests, coupled with his deep connection to the region, makes him an obvious choice.

PDP’s role as kingmaker?

The PDP, once a dominant force in J&K politics, is expected to win only a few seats, mostly in South and North Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti, the party’s leader, has maintained that no government can be formed without PDP’s support, positioning herself as a potential kingmaker. While the PDP may not have the numbers to form the government on its own, its influence in Kashmir could make it a key player in any coalition-building efforts.

Mehbooba Mufti has already ruled out an alliance with the BJP, which narrows the PDP’s options. However, the PDP could potentially form a coalition with the National Conference, despite the historical rivalry between the two. If such an alliance were to materialize, howsoever difficult it is, Mehbooba Mufti could once again find herself in the Chief Minister’s chair, though she would likely have to negotiate power-sharing terms with the Abdullahs.

The Congress factor

In most of J&K’s post 1953 history, Congress Party has remain a critical factor in government formation in J&K. Although that role has now been increasingly sought to be replaced by BJP, Congress expects a good performance in the Assembly elections and is expected to be a major factor in government formation. Its new J&K Chief Tariq Hameed Karra is credited to have galvanized the party at the right time before the elections. His political and social stature, as coming from an old-time political stalwart family in Kashmir, and his background as a former Finance Minister of J&K, are seen to be playing a key role in getting inflential new members to the Congress from Kashmir and reinvigorating the Jammu party cadre. In all scenarios, Congress is likely to be a crucial actor in the government formation.

The rise of smaller players

Smaller parties like the Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) and Apni Party could also play a significant role in the post-election landscape. Sheikh Rashid (Engineer Rashid), who won the Parliamentary seat of North Kashmir in 2024, is expected to perform well in certain pockets of North Kashmir in the Assembly elections, potentially emerging as a major factor. Rashid, known for his populist rhetoric and focus on Kashmir’s grievances, could become a kingmaker in a hung Assembly, though his influence is likely to be limited to the Kashmir Valley.

Apni Party, led by Altaf Bukhari, is also hoping to win a few seats. With a sound organizational machinery, the party could secure a foothold in the Assembly, but it is unlikely to emerge as a major player. However, Bukhari could leverage his party’s support in forming a coalition, potentially positioning himself for a ministerial role, if not the Chief Minister’s seat.

Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, if it is able to secure a couple of seats, may expect to play a similar role.

People’s Conference factor

Despite facing multi dimensional challenges to its traditional voter base in north Kashmir, the Sajjad Gani Lone-led People’s Conference is expected to win a few north Kashmir seats too. If its electoral performance in the Lok Sabha elections is any indicator, its has good chances in making a dent in the electoral ambitions of NC, PDP and AIP in north Kashmir.

Although Sajjad Gani Lone has lately positioned himself as someone disillusioned with Delhi’s policies on Kashmir, especially in managing elections, his factor remains important to all permutations and combinations as well. While in post 2014 scenario his party has been seen sliding politically with the central government, his often blunt and honest articulation about Delhi’s handling of Kashmir’s electoral politics is seen as something which could make him less attractive to a Delhi-centric political formation in the new realities.

Would Independents play a role

Political observers believe that Independent candidates are also likely to play some role in this election, considering which political formation they would like to side with. Although some Independents, mostly comprising of dissidents from political parties, are expected to win, Ram Madhav, BJP’s principal negotiator for J&K government formation, told India Today, that while his party would be looking forward to engaging with Independents, it is not certain which political formation Independents would side with.

If the reports about the Governor administration having already nominated five MLAs to the Assembly as the provisions of the J&K Reorganization Act, 2019; things could get even more complicated for a secular alliance.

Congress Party on Friday expressed concerns about the reports that the Governor administration has nominated five members to the Assembly even before the government formation. The party said that the MLAs could be nominated only on the advice of the elected government, and that this pre-government nomination was not in accordance with democratic principles.

The coalition puzzle

With ground-based reports indicating that no party is likely to secure an outright majority, the most probable outcome is a coalition government. The National Conference and BJP are expected to emerge as the two biggest winners, but the formation of the government will depend on how smaller parties like PDP, AIP, and Apni Party align themselves.

Given the complexities of the political landscape, the question of who will become the next Chief Minister of J&K remains wide open. Will it be Omar Abdullah, returning to power after a long hiatus? Or the senior Abdullah – Farooq Abdullah – would be favoured within the party to take the lead? Will Ravinder Raina’s BJP secure enough numbers to install a government? Or will Mehbooba Mufti or a surprise candidate like Engineer Rashid become the kingmaker? The answer will only be revealed later on Saturday evening and, more precisely, on October 8, when the election results are declared.