Srinagar, July 26: A new study published on July 25, in the journal Nature, has found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.
Scientists have warned that this collapse would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”
It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters and sea level rises affecting parts of Europe and the US, and a shifting of the monsoon in the tropics.
For years, scientists have been warning of its instability as the climate crisis accelerates, threatening to upset the balance of temperature and salinity on which the strength of these currents depend.
As the oceans heat up and ice melts, more freshwater flows into the ocean and reduces the water’s density, making it less able to sink. When waters become too fresh, too warm or both, the conveyor belt stops.
It has happened before. More than 12,000 years ago, rapid glacier melt caused the AMOC to shut down, leading to huge Northern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations of 10 to 15 degrees Celsius (18 to 27 Fahrenheit) within a decade.
A 2019 report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that the AMOC would weaken over this century, but that its full collapse before 2100 was unlikely. This new study comes to a much more alarming conclusion.
What could this mean for a Himalayan eco-system like Jammu & Kashmir?
Scientists believe that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could have a number of negative impacts on the Himalayan ecosystem, including reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and more extreme weather events.
“The AMOC is responsible for transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. If the AMOC collapses, this warm water will no longer be transported, leading to reduced precipitation in the Himalayas. This could have a significant impact on agriculture, as many crops in the Himalayas rely on rain for irrigation”, said Shekhar Gupta, who studies Himalayan precipitation at a Delhi univerity.
Scientists also believe that if the AMOC collapses, the North Atlantic will become cooler, leading to increased temperatures in J&K’s Himalayas. This could have a negative impact on the health of the Himalayan ecosystem, as many plants and animals are adapted to cooler temperatures.
In addition to these direct impacts, the collapse of the AMOC could also have a number of indirect impacts on the Himalayan ecosystem. For example, a decrease in precipitation could lead to a decrease in the amount of snowmelt, which is a major source of water for many rivers in the Himalayas. This could lead to water shortages, which could have a significant impact on agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, said Tanveer Khan, a geo-scientist.
Potential impact on agriculture in J&K:
The AMOC also helps to moderate summer temperatures in most parts of Jammu & Kashmir. If the AMOC collapses, summer temperatures could become hotter, which could have a negative impact on crops and other plants. Hotter summer temperatures could also lead to an increase in the number of heat waves, which could have a negative impact on human health, said Mr Gupta.
A decrease in precipitation could lead to water shortages, which could have a significant impact on agriculture in Kashmir. Many crops in Kashmir rely on rain for irrigation, and a decrease in precipitation could lead to crop failures.
