Top News

Is Kashmir bracing for a flood situation again this week?

9 July 2023

Follow Ziraat Times on Whatsapp - Join Now

*Jhelum river as seen on Saturday afternoon in Srinagar*

Srinagar, July 8: The Jhelum River and its major tributaries, like the Vishow Nallah, Rambiyara Nallah, Lidder river and Sindh Nallah, had witnessed a rather sudden rise in water levels on Saturday. Even as the water levels in the Jhelum and its tributaries even crossed what the Irrigation and Flood Control Department calls “danger levels” Saturday evening, the good news is that early morning on Sunday water levels have started receding, and there is no immediate flood threat to Kashmir and Srinagar city.

Therefore, the current situation, as per the data analysed by Ziraat Times as at 4 AM on Sunday, does not indicate a threat of a flood similar to the 2014 flood.

But how close was it this week?

Well, the rate of increase in water levels indicates that it was a close call. Certain areas in close vicinities of the Jhelum and some of its tributaries had infact swelled with water on Saturday evening and early Sunday. Another one or two days of rainfall could have turned nasty yet again – and Kashmir could have been face to face with a 2014-like situation again. However, based on the available data and the trends observed, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate threat of a flood. The water levels in Jhelum River and its tributaries have either stabilized, shown a slight decrease, or remained below danger levels.

But what made the waters recede?

It is the weather blessing. A major weather system, which had covered much of north India, quickly moved eastwards, sparing Kashmir valley from further heavy rains.

Based on the data analysed by Ziraat Times on water gauge levels in Jhelum River and its tributaries in Kashmir, while the water levels at Sangam have shown a slight decrease (receding) from 21.92ft to 21.87ft by 4 AM on Sunday, water levels were going constantly up till midnight. This, now, indicates a relatively stable situation.
While the water levels at Pampore have increased from 5.38m to 5.44m by 4 AM, indicating a gradual rise, the water levels in the tributaries (Vishow Nallah, Rambiyara Nallah, Doodhganga Nallah, and Sindh Nallah) have shown a slight decrease (receding) or remained below danger levels. This suggests a relatively stable or improving situation.

Comparison with the 2014 Flood:

The current situation, as per the data analysed by Ziraat Times, does not indicate a threat of a flood similar to the 2014 flood. In 2014, there was heavy rainfall over an extended period, leading to a rapid and significant rise in water levels. The water levels during the 2014 flood far exceeded the flood alert and declaration levels.

However, experts continue to warn that it is crucial to note that flood situations can change rapidly in Kashmir valley, and small changes in weather patterns can have significant impacts on water levels, especially as we head to autumn.

“It is very important to closely monitor the situation by the Irrigation & Flood Control Department for the most accurate and up-to-date information on the hydrological situation in Kashmir. They must pool expertise to assess the flood risk based on various factors such as rainfall forecasts, river discharge rates, and historical data”, said a retired civil engineer with expertise in hydrological science.

Experts also say that it is also essential for individuals and communities in flood-prone areas to stay vigilant, follow local authorities’ instructions, and be prepared for any emergency situations.