New Delhi, April 11: The country is likely to receive ‘below-normal’ monsoon rains during June-September period at 94% of the benchmark with an average error margin of +/- 5%, private weather forecaster Skymet on Monday said.
If the forecast holds good, the country would receive below normal rainfall this year after four consecutive years of ‘normal or above normal’ precipitation. Skymet said that rainfall during the June-September period that provides more than 70%of the country’s annual precipitation is expected to be at 816.5 millimeters as against the normal benchmark of 868.8 mm.
The agency predicted that there is an increasing likelihood of development of El-Nino in Asia, which could become dominant during the monsoon months.
“The likelihood of El Nino is increasing, and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon,” Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said.
In terms of regional distribution, the skymet expects northern and central parts of the country may get deficient rainfall especially Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra during July and August.
In north India, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are likely to receive below normal rains in the second half of the monsoon months.
