As Covid19 cases rise in J&K; experts worry for ‘unknown J&K mutant’

Srinagar: Even as J&K Government on Wednesday reported the detection of 1086 new positive cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19), experts are expressing concern about the rising cases and the lack of information about the predominant Covid19 mutant that exists in Jammu & Kashmir today.

Pertinently, one of India’s eminent virologist Dr Shahid Jameel told India Today in an interview on 14 April that there is scientific logic to believe that the dominant coronavirus mutant prevalent in India had mutated to a level ‘that it has become unique to India.’

Calling it an ‘Indian mutant’, he told India Today that it is likely to be a hybrid variant consisting of several different mutants that exist today. According to him it would take about 3-4 weeks for various scientific studies being done in the country to clearly determine what variant exists in India.

Dr S K Sarin, Director ILBS, while conceding to the view that India’s predominant variant may have transformed to a unique mutant, said that the quality and speed of research and genome sequencing had to be enhanced in the country to keep pace with the spread of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, medical experts working in frontline Covid19 response hospitals in J&K told Ziraat Times that the medical fraternity in J&K was in complete dark about the nature of the coronavirus variant existing in Kashmir.

Suneel Wattal, an analyst, who has been following and analyzing J&K’s coronavirus spread and mitigation response since the beginning of the pandemic sees the growth rate and the doubling time of the spread of coronavirus in J&K as alarming.

Even as Covid19 cases are surging in Kashmir, the situation in Jammu, where the situation was earlier better, is also turning grim.

On Wednesday, 402 cases of coronavirus were reported from Jammu division while 684 cases were reported from Kashmir division.

As per Mr Wattal’s analysis, the positivity rate is also steadily increasing in J&K, as seen from the above graph.

As on 14 April, 2021, the total number of positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir has risen to 141736. As seen the chart below, the percentage prevalence of the positive cases is also increasing in Jammu division in relation to Kashmir division.

“The problem is that it is a known fact now that the existing RT_PCR test is not reliable any more in detection diverse variants of Covid19. Consequently, several positive cases are not being detected at all”, a doctor dealing with RT_PCR tests, told Ziraat Times.

“What we need immediately is research to know what variant of Covid19 exists in J&K today. We also need research for the kind of mutant that is being detected among visitors to J&K. That will give us an idea about what predominant mutant exists in Kashmir and whether that mutant has arrived in Kashmir from outside”, he added.

Other experts are also expressing concern for the future outlook.

“While as of now J&K’s hospitals are not experiencing an overwhelming situation, with fewer fatalities in comparison to the total positive cases, this situation might not remain the same if the current positivity rate keeps growing at the current rate. The concern is that if medical care system has come under intense stress in cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Pune, what could happen in J&K?”, another expert said.