This winter, 2 million people could migrate out of Kashmir, cost Rs 15,000 crore

8 December 2019

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ZT Research Team

This winter the number of people migrating out of Kashmir, a Ziraat Times survey suggests, could reach 2 million, with the accompanying cost of around Rs 15,000 crore.

While human migration from Kashmir during harsh winters has been occurring since times immemorial, it has been picking up pace in recent years. A survey conducted by Ziraat Times in 2018 suggested that about 1.8 million people would normally migrate out in winters from Kashmir valley and winter zone areas of Jammu division like Ramban, Kishtwar, Doda, Bhaderwah, Rajouri, Poonch, etc. The migration came with a cost: Rs 11,109 crore for the five-month period between November and March.

While in normal circumstances most of this winter migration used to be temporary in nature, the situation unfolding in the post August 5 era could be different.

What is accelerating migration this winter?

This winter, human migration from Kashmir is increasing at an unprecedented level. What is driving people out is the intense loss of jobs, business disruption and the curbs on communications, mainly the ban on Internet since August 5, 2019, when J&K’s special constitutional position was suspended.

Are any credible numbers available?

The last three decades have seen unprecedented permanent migration of people from Kashmir region to other parts of the country and abroad. There is no credible figure available to suggest the exact number of people who have migrated to other countries. Nor are there any statistics available to indicate the number of J&K state subjects living in various states across the country. Given the absence of a statistical system recording inward and outward movement of people from J&K in general and Kashmir valley, in particular, there are no definite figures available about the number of people who have migrated out in the post-August 5 era.

Besides the permanent migration, there is another type of migration – albeit temporary – that a significant number of people from Kashmir, Ladakh and parts of Jammu region undertake in winter. This migration mostly happens for the three months of December, January, February. Like the permanent migration, we do not have any credible statistics on the actual number of people who migrate in winters.

ZT Opinion Survey

In 2018, Ziraat Times conducted an opinion survey on the rough estimate of the number of families that migrate out of Kashmir province, the drivers of migration and the nature of investments and expenditure that they do during the winter period.

Who we talked to
We set out to address three questions: How many upper, middle and lower-middle income families actually migrate to outside Kashmir in winter months? On an average, how much do the upper, middle and lower-middle income families actually spend each month of the temporary migration? How much estimated investment and monthly expenditure might each family be doing?

Methodology we adopted

We shared questionnaires with diverse groups of people, including salaried classes and businessmen. Women were, particularly, included to have their views. People who took part in the survey have estimated different numbers and percentages on almost all questions of the survey. The percentage number about the people who actually migrate vary widely between 20% and 60%. Considering this wide variation, we considered the majority view that pegged the percentage between 20% to 40%. Even in this, to tread the side of caution, we took the much lower estimate of 25% of the population, that comes to 18.75 lakh people (considering the 2011 census figures).

We considered an average size of 5 persons in a household, so based our calculations on 375000 households migrating outside Kashmir during winters.

The spending calculation was done per social class – considering the average spending by upper class (5% of total population), upper middle class (20 % of total population), middle class (50% of total population) and lower income class (25% of total population).

In terms of spending, based on the opinion survey conducted, an upper income class family, on average, is estimated to spend Rs 120000 per month, upper middle class family – Rs 75,000, middle class – Rs 40,000 and lower income class – Rs 15,000.

In these calculations we assumed that families only spend three months outside Kashmir, and, therefore, multiplied the estimated monthly spending by three only. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that some families spend more than three months outside Kashmir, however, that has not been considered in this calculation.

These calculations have given us an estimated figure of Rs 11,109 crore. In other words, people who migrate temporarily from Kashmir province in winter to other parts of the country end up spending Rs 11,109 crore in three months.

Situation in post August 5 era

Thousands of businessmen, entrepreneurs, students, researchers and other have left Kashmir due to lack of work opportunities or communications facilities. A rough estimate suggests that an additional 100,000 people would have left, or are in the process of leaving, Kashmir. Surveys conducted by Ziraat Times in December, 2019 in Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai suggest that this migration is both temporary and permanent.

Top 10 cities where Kashmiris mostly go (in the descending order of numbers)?

1. Jammu

2. Delhi

3. Gurgaon

4. Mumbai

5. Bangalore

6. Chandigarh

7. Kolkata

8. Shimla

9. Kovalam

10. Chennai

Top 5 spending areas
1. Day-to-day household shopping