Snowy new year in J&K: How much snow to expect?

Ziraat Times Weather Monitoring Desk

Srinagar: Year 2020 is likely to be greeted by considerable snowfall in Jammu & Kashmir.

Multiple weather data studied by Ziraat Times indicates that a long moisture-bearing cloud system emanating from the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea would cause snowfall between January 2 and 8 in Kashmir valley, Chenab valley basin, Pirpanjal basin, Kargil-Zanaskar sub-region and Ladakh. Plains of Jammu are likely to receive intermittent rainfall during this period.

This heavy early-January snowfall is likely to replenish glaciers across Jammu & Kashmir, including those ones that had receded in recent decades.

Ziraat Times shall produce more specific weather outlook for regions and sub-regions early coming week.

What is going to make this snowfall spell intense and longish?

1. Widespread weather system: This weather system is likely to be long and large. To the north and west, it would cover Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, northeast Pakistan, almost entire north India. This system is likely to create perfect conditions for widespread precipitation, mainly snowfall across most parts of Jammu & Kashmir and rains in Jammu plains for at least six days.

2. Thick moisture-laden cloud cover: The cloud cover that will engulf J&K during this period is of high density and lane with moisture. Latest ultraviolet satellite images and the outlook images for the next week show moderate to high-density clouds to cover J&K for a longish period.

3. Trends in wind directions: The wind direction and speed trends available at this time suggests that two cold fronts from regions north and north-west of J&K would bring in colder air into J&K from the extreme north and north-west. Those cold fronts would neutralise the warmer winds occasionally blowing in from the south into J&K, creating longer durations of snowfall over the next five days.

4. The Chillai Kalan factor: Being early-January and Chillai Kalan conditions, surface temperatures are low, and therefore, the fallen snows would freeze, creations deep freeze conditions in entire Kashmir valley, Chenab and Pirpanjal basins, Kargil-Zanaskar subregion and entire Ladakh region. Temperatures are also likely to go down in Jammu.

How much snowfall is expected where?

The available data related to the extent of cloud cover, density, wind speed, direction, humidity and temperature indicates as below:

• Pirpanjal mountain range and karewas areas along the range from Verinag to Pir ki Gali to Yusmarg and to Kandi Baramulla would receive 2 to 5 feet of snowfall .
• The eastern parts of Kashmir valley, from Verinag, Pahalgam, upper Tral, Shikargah, Zabarwan range, Dachigam Park areas would receive between 1 to 4 feet.
• Kashmir valley plains are likely to receive 1 to 2 feet of snowfall.
• Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, upper Doda, Sinthan Top, Margan Top and Margan valley would receive snowfall between 2 to 4 feet.
• Banihal, upper parts of Ramban, upper Rajouri and Poonch would receive between 2-3 feet.

Note: Ziraat Times issues weather forecast/advisories in the interest of farmers and general public based on the analysis of multiple weather data, including dynamic and ultraviolet satellite imagery, cloud movement models, supercomputer-generated direction and wind speeds associated with the westerly jet, temperature variations within Jammu & Kashmir, sub-regions and neighbouring regions, past weather data and patterns. While maximum care is taken in generating this information, and most times our forecasts are accurate; due to the rapidly-changing nature of winds, humidity and local cloud formation, at times, the forecast might not go as anticipated. We advise discretion in using this information.