Sorry, Kashmir may drown again! World Bank project suggests why

8 September 2024

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Memories of September 2014 flood are bitter and sad for most Kashmiris. Yesterday, we marked ten years since that big tragedy. I was in Srinagar that month on a family vacation, and watched, in disbelief and horror, as our house in Srinagar got submerged.

As the Jhelum waters submerged most of Srinagar and its suburban districts, we also witnessed heroism of mutual help like never before. As displacement and loss was unfolding before our eyes, we were also drawing comfort from how selflessly people were helping each other without irrespective of their own loss, faith, color or race. Everyone had joined hands to help everyone – be it tourists, outside workers, locals and whoever.
That camaraderie helped us overcome the loss quickly. And Kashmir recovered and survived.

But today, we are faced with a few stark questions: are we safer today? Are we better prepared and safeguarded in 2024?

Sadly, the answer is a resounding “not really”.

After the floods, those who secured the World Bank soft loan of $250 million for reconstructing our infrastructure and reduce future risks did a great job. The project made some good progress, but the stark reality is that we face even graver flood risks today than 10 years ago.

Environmental Policy Group organised a very insightful seminar in Srinagar yesterday where we got to hear experts like Dr G N Qasba, Iftikhar Drabu, Aijaz Rasool, Faiz Bakshi and others about where we stand today. I spoke about whether we are safer after the World Bank project and why we need to have a meaningful budget provision for disaster risk reduction in J&K now.

While the Jhelum-Tawi Flood Recovery Project (JTFRP) did help in some improvements in disaster preparedness, but they appear to be far from sufficient.

Reconstruction of roads, bridges, and public buildings, and enhanced flood protection along the Jhelum River have been some tangible achievements. Capacity-building initiatives have also been launched to improve disaster management.

When we look at the ground situation, J&K’s institutional capacity to manage floods is far from optimal, and cities are growing, and floodplains are shrinking at a fast pace. For example, the Nowgam flood basin in Srinagar, once a vital buffer zone, is now being filled up at a rapid speed.

The new Srinagar satellite city coming up at Rakhi Gund Aksha wetland would consume one of the last remaining natural flood sponges near the city.
Since 2014, J&K’s environmental impact assessment regime hasn’t got any stronger; it has become even weaker. As a result, the natural flood-absorbing systems like wetlands and flood basins are being lost like never before.

Multiple environmental risks in J&K, as pointed out by the World Bank in its final evaluation report, have not been fully addressed. Riverbank mining and the shrinking of critical flood basins remain persistent challenges.

What next? After the World Bank project, does J&K have the money to continue with risk reduction activities?

There is still so much to do in flood risk reduction but money is scarce. J&K’s financial picture is complicated, as always. The World Bank loan of $250 million in 2016 came from the International Development Association (IDA) – the World Bank’s concessionary lending arm – with a maturity of 25 years, including a 5-year grace period.

This kind of soft finance doesn’t come again and again, and we cannot afford to take more loans to fund risk reduction.

There is still a lot of debate at the World Bank and other multilateral development platforms if such risk prevention loans ultimately strengthen governments’ corresponding capacity to repay. Ideally, J&K must budget for cost-effective risk reduction through its annual budget from its own resources.

Although that would not be easy looking at the usual fiscal and budget deficits, it should look at innovative ways of tying such budget provisions with its revenues.

Today in 2024, J&K’s financial liabilities and debt stand at ₹1.12 lakh crore. Our debt has increased by ₹69,617 crore over the past 10 years alone. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 51% projected for 2024-25, this fiscal burden could limit J&K’s ability to finance new disaster preparedness and prevention initiatives.

Debt servicing is already eating up a significant portion of J&K’s budget, with over ₹11,710 crore allocated to debt repayments in 2024-25, alongside ₹10,272 crore in interest payments.

Combined, this accounts for nearly 18.5% of the overall budget expenditure. Given this heavy financial load, we would struggle to find new funding for risk reduction unless we significantly broaden our revenue base.

Time to prioritise risk reduction in development planning and execution:

It has been proven now that societies facing high disaster risks must mainstream risk reduction in their development paradigm. Let us remind ourselves, Kashmir is also in Seismic Zone V, meaning a devastating earthquake is not a remote figment of imagination.
To prioritize risk reduction more effectively, J&K needs to focus on the high-risk areas first, instead of spreading limited resources too thin. For example, the JTFR Project covered all of J&K’s 20 districts, which doesn’t make a good development sense.

JTFRP’s objectives of restoring critical infrastructure, strengthening disaster management capacity, enhancing flood protection and supporting livelihoods were lofty. However, there are multiple lessons from the JTFR Project that need to be factored in any new risk reduction program. For example, JTFR Project’s final evaluation has highlighted the delays caused by J&K’s challenging terrain in project execution, political instability, and procurement bottlenecks, which, as per the Bank, had slowed the project progress. It also said that community-driven projects have faced bureaucratic hurdles, limiting their effectiveness.

Critically, environmental impacts continue to be overlooked in many development projects, meaning that long-term sustainability is at risk.

The way forward:

As we reflect on the past 10 years, it is clear that J&K must do more to invest in preparedness and prevention. The World Bank and UN estimates suggest that every dollar spent on disaster risk reduction saves between $4 and $7 in recovery costs.

First and foremost, J&K must tighten environmental and land-use laws. It has to implement stricter regulations to curb environmentally harmful practices such as flood basin encroachment and riverbank mining.

J&K needs to strengthen institutional capacities of its departments and give disaster management bodies the necessary authority and resources to act swiftly in the event of disasters.

We must also talk more about sustainable flood management and focus on improving drainage systems, regulating construction near flood-prone areas, and conserving vital flood basins.
In all this community engagement is a must. Involvement of local communities in planning and decision-making to ensure that disaster resilience efforts are effective and sustainable is important too.

Over the past decade, J&K has faced increasing climate uncertainties, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent. The 2014 floods were a wake-up call, but 10 years later, we still have a long way to go in truly reducing flood risks and ensuring the safety of our people.