Srinagar, Aug 16: AsĀ extreme weather conditions in Himachal Pradesh this year are estimated to bring down its apple production by 50%, Kashmir’s apple farmers are faced with a critical question: would they fetch better incomes this year?
Anecdotal information gathered by Ziraat Times from farmers from various areas in Kashmir suggests that overall production of apples is expected to be low in Kashmir as well this year. But would this low production mean better incomes this year? Is Himachal’s extreme weather situation a wakeup call for Kashmir’s horticulture sector?
Apple farmers from Himachal Pradesh contacted by Ziraat Times say the way floods and landslides have washed away apple orchards, uprooted trees, and damaged their crops has never been seen before. In some cases, entire apple belts have been wiped out.
Senior officials from the Himachal’s Horticulture Department told Ziraat Times that the apple crop in the state is expected to decline by at least 50% this year. This could have a major impact on the state’s economy, as apple production is a major source of income for farmers.
Would this situation have an impact on the rates ofĀ Kashmir apples?
The decline in apple production in Himachal is likely to lead to higher prices for apples in the country because of the mismatch between supply and demand. But things could play out differently as well.
“We are already receiving more bookings and queries from traders across the country. However, it is early to say that the rates of Kashmir apples would be better this year”, said Nazir Ahmed Sheikh, a trader from South Kashmir.
While there is likely to be a shortfall of domestic apples due to the Himachal situation in the country’s markets, the supply demand, analysts believe, would be covered by more imports.
“There are two things are. In the immediate term, prices of Kashmir apples would be better due to the less supply from Himachal. But, in the medium and long term during this season more apple imports are likely to cool down the prices”, said Naveen Kumar, a trader based in Chandigarh.
Analysts are also sceptical that the low apple production in Himachal would result in higher prices of apples due to the inflation basket factor.
“In situations like these, when supply is low and demand is high, both Commerce Ministry and importers intervene and import apples more aggressively to cool down prices”, says Naveed Anjum, who is doing his PhD on apple economics, adding “central governments have a major role to play in keeping overall inflation at bay. There is a certain band within which the overall inflation and inflation of commodities is kept under check. That way there would be an intervention to keep prices at a tolerable level”.
Is Himachal’s extreme weather situation a wakeup call for Kashmir?
Climate experts believe that Himachal’s extreme weather situation witnessed this year is not an event in isolation.
“It is a clear manifestation of how climate change and bad urban expansion in fragile hill conditions can devastate livelihoods. It is indeed a wakeup call for Kashmir”, said Firdous Khan, a climate researcher.
Observers also worry that should such a devastating weather event hit Kashmir’s apple industry, the livelihood and economic impacts would be huge.
Economic observers believe that the impact of the floods and landslides on the apple crop in Himachal Pradesh is a major setback for the state. The apple industry is a major source of income for farmers, and the decline in production will have a significant impact on the state’s economy.
However, the government of Himachal Pradesh is taking steps to help farmers affected by the floods and landslides. The government has announced a relief package of ā¹1000 crores for farmers, and is providing assistance with replanting apple orchards and providing financial assistance to farmers.
Lessons of the Himachal situation for Kashmir:
Several progressive farmers Ziraat Times spoke to agree that there are multiple lessons for Kashmir from the Himachal situation that farmers here must prepare for.
First is the erratic climate. Last winter, there was almost no snowfall in the apple belts of Himachal Pradesh. Then came heavy rains during flowering in the plants, followed by hailstorms. And then again heavy rain and floods when the fruit was ready. This erratic climate situation is indeed a wakeup call for Kashmir.
Himachal produced around 33.6 million apple boxes in 2022, according to State Horticulture Department. This year barely 15-20 million boxesbare expected to be produced. Apples are grown on 113,000 hectares in the state, according to government data.
Orchards in the apple-growing belt of Shimla and Kullu have suffered severe damages due to heavy rains between July 7 and July 10. And then came the damages during the second week of August.
In Himachal Pradesh, more than 500,000 people are directly associated with apple cultivation.
Sanjay Chauhan, co-convenor of The Samyukta Kisan Manch and an apple cultivator, was quoted by Down to Earth magazine saying that horticulturists of the state have suffered a loss of about Rs 2,500-Rs 3,000 crore.
