Kashmir Himalayas record 11 mm annual rainfall decline in over 48 years: Study

By: Peerzada Ummer

Srinagar: A recent study published has revealed notable changes in rainfall patterns across Kashmir, raising concerns about water management, agriculture, and flood preparedness. Researchers here have analyzed the rainfall data collected from six meteorological stations over a 48-year period, spanning from 1975 to 2023.

The study found a significant decline in annual rainfall at key locations such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam, and Qazigund. Among these, Gulmarg experienced the most pronounced decrease, with an average annual reduction of 11.058 millimeters per year. This downward trend poses challenges for water availability, which is critical for both agriculture and drinking needs in these rural areas.

Conversely, the urban center of Srinagar exhibited an increase in rainfall during January, a shift that has heightened concerns about the risk of urban flooding. The researchers attribute this change partly to climate change and emphasize the necessity of upgrading the city’s drainage infrastructure to better manage potential flood events.

Seasonal variations were also observed, with spring rainfall showing a sharp decline in mountainous regions. This reduction could disrupt traditional crop cycles, potentially affecting agricultural productivity. Additionally, monsoon rainfall patterns appeared more erratic at some stations, complicating water resource planning.

To arrive at these conclusions, the research team employed advanced statistical methods including the Mann-Kendall test to detect trends and spatial interpolation techniques such as Kriging to map rainfall distribution. Where data gaps existed, machine learning algorithms like Decision Trees and K-Nearest Neighbors were used to estimate missing values, achieving an accuracy rate of approximately 67 per cent.

The implications of these findings are far-reaching. Decreased spring rainfall may prompt farmers to adopt drought-resistant crops and more efficient irrigation methods. The overall decline in annual rainfall in rural parts of Kashmir highlights the importance of implementing rainwater harvesting systems to enhance water security. The study advocates for the development of localized climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing the need to strengthen flood defenses in urban areas like Srinagar while promoting water conservation in regions facing scarcity.

As per the study these changes mirror the global impacts of climate change and that the Himalayas serve as a critical indicator of environmental shifts. He stressed that regional responses must be timely and grounded in scientific evidence. —(KNO)