The clock is ticking. J&K’s glaciers need decisive policy action.

By: Arjimand Hussain

(This article is adapted from his lecture at the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) on March 20, 2025)

Hon’ble Vice Chancellor Prof  Shakeel Romshoo sahab, Prof Kulkarni sahab, distinguished faculty members and dear students As-salamu-alaikum, good morning, adaab

It is a great pleasure speaking to you this morning. And thank you for having me here.

As a development professional, and someone who has worked on river water systems and food security issues from the massive Nile River system  to Lake Chad to glacial river systems of the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas and Atlas mountain system, I have seen the looming specter of climate change first hand. Since 2003, the  unfolding climate change and its impact on food systems and livelihoods has been a personal, visible experience to me.

For much of the world, the conversation on climate change remains about carbon footprints and distant polar ice caps. Here, in the Kashmir Himalayas, it is about survival—of people, of cultures, of economies.

As Prof Romshoo and Prof Kulkarni brilliantly, explained with scientific facts and figures, the glaciers of the Himalayas, often called the “Third Pole,” are indeed melting at an unprecedented rate. Their presentations have made my task a little difficult as they have already covered most of the things that I was planning to talk about. I would, therefore, restructure my presentation and focus on the Himalayan ecology systems that are critical for food and water security of hundreds of millions of people in our region.

Today, climate change discussions are not isolated concerns limited to our mountain communities. The very rivers that nourish India’s “Food Basket” states—Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal – trace their origins to the Himalayan rivers that are fundamentally fed by glaciers. The accelerated retreat of glaciers portends a future of scarcity, changed livelihood patterns, and increased migrations, especially rural and urban migrations.

From my experience, we are witnessing what I call a “triple whammy”: rapid climate change, relentless population growth, and reckless environmental degradation. The Himalayan glaciers, the planet’s largest store of ice outside the polar regions, are disappearing faster than previously estimated.

An inventory of 2,190 glaciers in the Indian Himalayas shows an area loss rate of 3.3% per decade, with 76% ofl glaciers in retreat. In Kashmir alone, glaciers have shrunk by nearly 30% over the last six decades. Some glaciers—like Najwan Akal, Thajwas, Zojila, Nambalnar, and Hajibal’s Afarwat—have lost up to 75% of their mass. If this trajectory continues, the rivers they feed will dwindle to trickles in the dry seasons and flood with destructive fury during the monsoon. Either way, lives and livelihoods will be caught in the crosshairs.

India’s food security is intricately tied to these glacier-fed rivers. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together account for nearly a quarter of India’s food grain production, depend heavily on the Ganga and its tributaries for irrigation. Punjab and Haryana, the country’s wheat and rice powerhouses, rely on the Sutlej, Beas, and Yamuna. Even Assam and West Bengal’s rice and tea economies depend on the Brahmaputra and Teesta rivers.

The numbers are staggering. In 2024, India produced an estimated 332.3 million metric tons (MMT) of food grains. Of this, the states reliant on Himalayan river irrigation systems contributed significantly:

• Uttar Pradesh: 60 MMT (18% of national output)

• Punjab: 30 MMT (9%)

• Haryana: 18 MMT (5%)

• Bihar: 15 MMT (4.5%)

• West Bengal: 16 MMT (4.8%)

• Assam: 5 MMT (1.5%)

Collectively, these regions represent India’s bulwark against hunger and famine. Yet, the very rivers that nourish their fields are endangered by glacial retreat. If the ice runs dry, so will the granaries of India.

Closer to home, the impact is already palpable. In Jammu & Kashmir, 70% of the population relies on agriculture. Yet, paddy cultivation has plummeted from 162,309 hectares in 2012-13 to just 134,067 hectares in 2021-22. A 40% food production deficit looms over the region, along with a 30% shortfall in vegetables and a 69% deficit in oilseeds. Alarmingly, the region now imports around 700,000 metric tons of food grains annually.

The traditional pastoral economies are suffering too. Livestock productivity has declined by 25%, with rising heat stress reducing milk and meat output. As glaciers melt and rivers shrink, both farming and herding become precarious livelihoods.

The Himalayan crisis is not just India’s problem. Nepal has already lost 24% of its glacier area between 1980 and 2010. Bhutan’s glaciers have shrunk by 23.3% over the same period. Pakistan’s more than 7,200 glaciers are melting rapidly, with only 120 showing signs of stability.

The crisis doesn’t stop here. India’s hydropower sector, which accounts for nearly 99% of the country’s renewable energy generation from large dams, is also glacier-dependent. As of February 2024, India had an installed hydropower capacity of 46,900 megawatts (MW). Of this, an overwhelming 46,850 MW comes from Himalayan river systems:

• Indus River system projects: 7,000 MW+

• Ganga River system projects: 3,500 MW+

• Yamuna River projects: 900 MW

• Brahmaputra River system projects: 7,000 MW+ (including under construction)

Dams like Tehri, Bhakra Nangal, and Ranjit Sagar were cornerstones of India’s Green Revolution and continue to power homes, industries, and farms. But their future hinges on glacier-fed rivers that are rapidly becoming seasonal streams.

It is clear we stand at a tipping point. The Himalayan glaciers are a shared lifeline not just for India, but for South Asia as a whole. Bold action is the only way forward. I would like to conclude my presentation with these recommendations, although this is not a policy workshop.

Firstly, we need to revamp climate policy and governance in the country.

India’s State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) and the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)—formulated in 2008—must be revised with clear, time-bound outcomes focused on water security, food production, and renewable energy sustainability.

In Jammu & Kashmir, a dedicated Climate Change Agency is critical. This agency should be empowered to conduct research, oversee policy execution, and enforce environmental regulations.

Similarly, J&K Climate Action Plan is old and needs to be updated to align with the current realities. It is a fact that climate change is influenced overwhelmingly by global factors which are beyond our control. We also recognise that countries and eco systems like ours are not big contributors to factors triggering climate change. However, certain local factors cannot be ignored. We have seen, over the years, Pampore-Khrew area in Kashmir Valley, receives least snowfall and rainfall precipitation due to high polluting industrial activities there. So we must address local factors too.

It is important for J&K to consider introducing an Environmental Cess.

Implementing of the “Polluter Pays Principle” on high-emission industries and high carbon footprint tourism operations is a global norm. We must embrace that approach to make our industrial and tourism more environment friendly.  Revenues from this environmental cess should fund climate adaptation initiatives, reforestation, and glacier conservation projects.

J&K muat also strengthen its  Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) regime.

All major infrastructure projects — particularly dams, tunnels, highway, railway and such large projects in the Himalayas — must undergo rigorous Social and Environmental Impact Assessments (SEIAs) with a focus on climate risk. The fragile Himalayan ecology cannot afford poorly planned interventions.

Promoting climate-resilient agriculture is a top imperative. Although some progress has been made in this area, much more is still to be done.

Farmers need support to shift to climate-resilient crops that require less water and are better adapted to changing precipitation patterns. Incentivizing agroforestry, particularly the cultivation of high-value conifers on private lands, can provide alternative livelihoods and restore ecological balance. Kashmir’s rain-fed Karewas,  particularly, need an special action plan. These are rich soil areas but lack of irrigation have left these areas with low productivity and incomes.

In regions like Kashmir, indoor farming—including hydroponics and vertical farming—can mitigate weather-related crop failures. Developing robotic harvesting solutions for key crops like saffron and walnuts can reduce dependence on dwindling labor and improve productivity.

Urbanization has consumed over 30,000 hectares of agricultural land in Kashmir in the last decade. Making agriculture viable and profitable through mechanization, market access, and subsidies is essential to retaining rural populations in farming.

Indigenous water management systems like Kuhls in Himachal Pradesh and Zings in Ladakh must be revived and integrated into modern irrigation plans. These systems are time-tested, sustainable, and perfectly suited to mountain farming.

The ecological teachings of Kashmir’s patron saint, Hazrat Sheikh Noor-ud-Din Wali, who prophetically warned of environmental degradation centuries ago, should form the heart of climate advocacy in the region. Cultural memory can be a powerful motivator for conservation.

The stakes could not be higher. Water scarcity, food insecurity, and climate-induced displacement are the inevitable outcomes of inaction. This is not alarmism; it is a reality backed by science and lived experience. I have seen it from the Atlas Mountains to the Nile Basin. What happens in the Himalayas will shape the future of more than 1.5 billion people across South Asia.

India must lead by example. And the time to act is not tomorrow. It is today.

I will stop here,and thank you very much for your patient listening.

Arjimand Hussain is a development economist with extensive climate change research and policy advice He is founder of Ziraat Times.