India’s remittances to fall by 23% in 2020, NRK income to fall too

Remittances in India are projected to fall by about 23% to $64 billion in 2020, compared to a growth rate of 5.5% and receipts of $83 billion in 2019.

Srinagar: As many major economies are all set to slip into recession this year, Indians living in those countries are also likely to send far less money back home.

An analysis conducted by Ziraat Times indicates that the net income and remittances from Non-resident Kashmiris (NRKs) is estimated to fall by at least 25 percent, factoring in relatively greater vulnerability of trade and business components of Kashmiris living abroad.

Handicrafts sales overseas, which earns about Rs 700 crore per annum for Kashmir, are likely to face a slump. That slump is likely to translate into lower remittances back home in J&K.

Moreover, there are also big job losses expected, which would also have a negative impact on J&K’s net remittances received.

In India, remittances are projected to fall by about 23 per cent to USD 64 billion in 2020, compared to a growth rate of 5.5 per cent and receipts of USD 83 billion in 2019, according to a World Bank report. The effect of coronavirus is expected to be visible in the form of global slowdown and travel restrictions, which will also affect migratory movements, keeping remittances subdued even in 2021, the report added.

There are thousands of Jammu & Kashmir residents (NRKs) living across the world. Although the exact number of J&K state subjects living outside the state is unknown, it has been generally known that substantial remittances are sent back by this population through banking and other formal channels to J&K every year.

An analysis of key banking data conducted by Ziraat Times indicates that the residents of Jammu & Kashmir living abroad have sent back home Rs 870 crore as remittances in 2016-17. 

The total NRK remittances in 2019-20 are estimated to have risen to Rs 1083 crore.

With a likely 25 percent decrease in 2020-21, net remittances from NRKs to their home state Jammu and Kashmir is estimated to fall to about Rs 733 crore.

With over 10 crore internal migrants, many Indian states are set to face a hit on the internal remittances front as well.

Many people from the poorer sections of the population, especially from underdeveloped rural areas, migrate to urban economic centers in the search of an escape from poverty and unemployment.

Remittances from these migrants, though in smaller amounts than those from international migrants, serve as a lifeline and insurance for families left behind.