Srinagar: Fresh lockdowns and restrictions on movement across various Indian cities will result in an economic loss of Rs 1.5 lakh crore, according to a report by the economic wing of State Bank of India (SBI).
While the report makes the cumulative loss estimate based on individual loss calculation for states, Jammu & Kashmir is not included in the estimation process. There is no in-depth and systematic study available as of now to provide credible insights into the economic losses suffered by J&K due to the lockdowns of the first wave and the restrictions unfolding during the ongoing wave.
According to Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, the total loss is estimated at Rs 1.5 trillion, of which Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account for 80 per cent. Maharashtra alone accounts for 54 per cent.
In this backdrop, SBI has also lowered the gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22). The revised FY22 projection now stand at 10.4 per cent for real GDP (earlier 11 per cent) and 14.3 per cent for nominal GDP (earlier 15 per cent).
“As localised lockdowns get stricter and more widespread, broader indicators will likely decline more. We cut FY22 GDP forecast by 2.2 percentage points (ppt) to 11 per cent. This assumes half of the states/cities (by GDP) witness a 30 per cent less severe lockdown than previous year for 50 per cent lower days,” analysts at Jefferies wrote in an April 21 note.
Migration is another grim matter. According to Western Railways (for the period of April 1-12), almost 4.32 lakh people have returned to the states like Uttar Pradesh (UP), West Bengal, Bihar, Assam and Odisha from Maharashtra. Of 4.32 lakh, around 3.23 lakh reverse migrated to UP and Bihar alone.